266
FXUS65 KFGZ 301739
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1039 AM MST WED SEP 30 2026
SYNOPSIS
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH 5 AM MST THIS MORNING. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA
THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OF TODAY AS THE
TROUGH AND CLOSE CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY EXITING
ARIZONA. RAINFALL DURATION AND INTENSITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
HIGH AS IT HAS BEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, REDUCING THE RISK FOR
FLOODING, THOUGH RIVER FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO
THURSDAY. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA AND MOVING EASTWARD,
WITH MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF POLO NOW MOSTLY BEING LIFTED
INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OF EASTERN ARIZONA BEFORE COMING TO AN END.
A FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARIZONA WILL LIKELY BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 5 AM MST THIS MORNING AS RAINFALL INTENSITY
AND DURATION IS EXPECTED TO BE DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR TODAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY WILL BE RIVER FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER AS SURFACE WATER DRAIN
WITHIN THE BASINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE COOL THROUGH WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE
RAINFALL AND TROUGH PASSAGE. THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE QUITE COOL
IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WITH CLEARING SKIES AND SOME HIGH
ELEVATIONS COLD SPOTS MAY DROP CLOSE TO FREEZING.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST, RESULTING IN A DRIER PERIOD WITH NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. THE DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...WEDNESDAY 30/18Z THROUGH THURSDAY 01/18Z
MVFR
CONDITIONS LIFTING TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 21Z. A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM UNTIL 03Z, WITH CLEARING WEST
TO EAST DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. VFR TONIGHT MOST
LOCATIONS, BUT KFLG COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW CEILINGS
BETWEEN 09Z-15Z THURSDAY. WINDS NW-N 5-10KTS DAYTIME, LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY 01/18Z THROUGH SATURDAY 03/18Z...VFR
CONDITIONS, NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WINDS N-NE 5-10KTS
THURSDAY, E 10-15KTS FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER
EASTERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING, WHILE WESTERN ARIZONA WILL START TO
DRY OUT. AS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST, FOLLOWING THE
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW, THE RISK FOR FLOODING AND
BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING WILL DECREASE AS DRIER WEATHER CONTINUES
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE BY THURSDAY. WINDS NW-N
10-20 MPH TODAY, N-NE 5-10 MPH THURSDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...EXPECT A DRY WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING HUMIDITY.
EXPECT DAYTIME WINDS TO BE EAST/NORTHEAST AROUND 5-15 MPH, LIGHTER
OVERNIGHT.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...SCHANK
AVIATION...BERNHART
FIRE WEATHER...SCHANK
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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