175
FXUS65 KFGZ 141152
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
452 AM MST WED OCT 14 2026
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN NORTHEAST ARIZONA,
MAINLY THIS MORNING, WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. EXPECT DRY,
COOL, AND BREEZY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MAY RETURN TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA
EARLY THIS MORNING, AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO NEAR 4 CORNERS BY
MID DAY AND OFF INTO COLORADO BY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AND LIFT
WITH THE LOW WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY THIS MORNING, PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-40 BUT
FOCUSED IN NORTHEAST ARIZONA. WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN, SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 7000 FEET, WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION
ABOVE 7500-8000 FEET FROM THE KAIBAB PLATEAU TO THE CHUSKA
MOUNTAINS. THE ADOT CAM AT JACOB LAKE (7900 FT) SHOWS A DUSTING
OF SNOW AS OF 130 AM. BY THIS AFTERNOON, SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOCUSED IN FAR NORTHEAST ARIZONA, ENDING BY
SUNSET. ELSEWHERE AROUND THE REGION, LOOK FOR GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES TODAY WITH NORTHWEST BREEZES 10-15 MPH AND HIGHS 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE EARLY MORNINGS WILL ALSO BE CHILLY
ACROSS THE REGION THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, AND A FREEZE WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH 8 AM THIS MORNING FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF
COCONINO COUNTY INCLUDING FLAGSTAFF, WILLIAMS, AND GRAND CANYON
NORTH AND SOUTH RIMS.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY - A WEAK UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF
FROM SW ARIZONA TO NORTHERN BAJA, WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DIVING SOUTHWARD TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES.
THIS WILL PRODUCE TIGHT EAST/NORTHEAST PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN OUR
REGION, LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH
GUSTS 35-45 MPH ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, PEAKING
THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THIS PATTERN
ARE TYPICALLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND YAVAPAI
COUNTY MOUNTAINS. SOME MOISTURE COULD ALSO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND, AND A LOW (10-20%)
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS INCLUDED IN OUR LATEST FORECASTS.
RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE AS WE GET CLOSER, DEPENDING ON THE TRACK
OF THE WEAK UPPER LOW AS IT EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND
AND POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL CYCLONE SIMON. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST FOR SIMON
WEAKENS IT TO A DEPRESSION IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY
SUNDAY. WHILE MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OUR EAST, A SMALL PERCENTAGE BRING IT FARTHER WEST, SO
THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO STAY
BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND. NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING UNSETTLED AS
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SET UP OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO OUR AREA WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION...WEDNESDAY 14/12Z THROUGH THURSDAY 15/12Z
ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA NORTH OF A KPGA-KRQE LINE THROUGH 22Z, WITH
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS. LOCALIZED MVFR CEILINGS SOME HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS THROUGH AROUND 16Z, INCLUDING NEAR KGCN. WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS 5-15 KTS, BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY AFTER 02Z.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY 15/12Z THROUGH SATURDAY 17/12Z...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. LOOK FOR NE TO E WINDS 15-25 KTS, GUSTING 30-40 KTS,
FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE BY 12Z SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE IN NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS BECOMING
NORTH/NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH TODAY, THEN NORTHEAST 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS
30-40 MPH ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS ARE EAST 15-25
MPH WITH GUSTS 30-45 MPH ON FRIDAY, SUBSIDING TO 10-20 MPH FROM THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY, THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY SUNDAY.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR AZZ004-
006-007-015.
PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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