294
FXUS65 KFGZ 150458
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
958 PM MST WED OCT 14 2026
SYNOPSIS
EXPECT CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS TONIGHT, WITH
GENERALLY DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TROPICAL
MOISTURE MAY RETURN THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A COLD UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WILL EJECT
INTO COLORADO TONIGHT, LEAVING OUR SKIES CLEAR AND COOL. AT THE SAME
TIME, A COLD FRONT DIVING THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS WILL BRING FAIRLY
ROBUST EASTERLY GRADIENTS INTO OUR STATE. MOST EAST WINDS WILL START
ON THURSDAY, PEAKING EARLY FRIDAY AND THEN DROPPING OFF HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALLY ENHANCED GUSTS OVER
40 MPH AT TIMES, MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY BELOW CRITERIA.
THIS FRONT IS THE RESULT OF A HIGHLY-APMLIFED PATTERN THAT WILL
SPAWN A NEW CUT-OFF LOW OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA BY FRIDAY. THIS LOW
WILL HANG AROUND FOR A FEW DAYS, POTENTIALLY TAPPING INTO MOISTURE
FROM HURRICANE SIMON AND TROPICAL STORM TRUDY. EVEN IF THESE SYSTEMS
DO NOT FEED INTO THE LOW, THEY ARE LIKELY TO INDUCE A SURGE THROUGH
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
SOUNDING FAMILIAR? YES, WE ARE ENTERING ANOTHER WEEKEND WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATER NEXT
WEEK. THIS SETUP DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS CRAZY AS THE LAST ONE, BUT
STAY IN TUNE WITH YOUR WEATHER FORECASTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AVIATION...THURSDAY 15/06Z THROUGH FRIDAY 16/06Z
VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT, OUTSIDE LOCALIZED
BREEZY NE WINDS DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN. AFTER 15Z, LOOK FOR N-NE
WINDS 15-25 KTS GUSTING NEAR 35 KTS.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY 16/06Z THROUGH SUNDAY 18/06Z...VFR CONDITIONS
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AFTER 18Z SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE E-NE THROUGH THE PERIOD, INITIALLY BETWEEN 15-25 KTS ON
FRIDAY, BECOMING LIGHTER 10-20 KTS ON SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
COOL AND WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WINDS ARE NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST 15-25 MPH
WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH ON THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, REMAINING ELEVATED
OVERNIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG/DOWNWIND OF HIGHER TERRAIN
FEATURES IN YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES AND NORTH OF THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. MIN RH IS 30-60% ON THURSDAY THEN 20-40% ON FRIDAY.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR EACH DAY. WINDS ARE 10-20
MPH FROM THE EAST ON SATURDAY, LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON SUNDAY, THEN
SOUTHWEST 5-15 MPH ON MONDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REMAIN 5-10
DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...PETERSON
AVIATION...KONIECZNY
FIRE WEATHER...LEWANDOWSKI
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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