995
FXUS65 KFGZ 150827
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
127 AM MST THU OCT 15 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY, COOL, AND WINDY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY RETURN THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY - STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT BASIN WHILE A LOW FORMS OFF THE
NORTHERN BAJA COAST. THE RESULT WILL BE RAPIDLY INCREASING
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. THERE WILL ALSO BE TIGHTER
EASTERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AS A SURFACE HIGH PLUNGES DOWN
THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS TO
INCREASE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, ESPECIALLY ALONG/WEST OF TERRAIN
FEATURES. THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, INCLUDING AREAS AROUND FLAGSTAFF,
SEDONA, AND THE I-17 CORRIDOR FROM FLAGSTAFF DOWN TO THE HWY 179
INTERCHANGE. GUSTS IN THESE AREAS MAY REACH 40-50 MPH, WITH MOST
OTHER AREAS STAYING IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE. OTHERWISE, EXPECT DRY
AND CONTINUED COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY - SOME MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE BACK INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY THE WEEKEND, AND A LOW (10-25%)
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS INCLUDED IN OUR LATEST
FORECASTS. RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE AS WE GET CLOSER, DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK OF THE WEAK UPPER LOW AS IT EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL SYSTEMS FAR TO THE SOUTH OFF THE COAST OF
MEXICO. WHILE MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE
DEEPER MOISTURE TO OUR EAST THROUGH SUNDAY, A SMALL PERCENTAGE
(INCLUDING LATEST OPERATIONAL EC) BRING IT FARTHER WEST, SO THIS
WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO STAY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY - ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SHOW DEEPER LOW
PRESSURE DIVING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST, SETTLING OVER OR JUST
WEST OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH TO
INTERACT WITH THE LOW OVER OUR REGION, AND OUR RAIN CHANCES HAVE
INCREASED TO 30-50% TUE/WED. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOLER THAN AVERAGE FOR MID OCTOBER.
AVIATION...THURSDAY 15/06Z THROUGH FRIDAY 16/06Z
VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT, OUTSIDE LOCALIZED
BREEZY NE WINDS DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN. AFTER 15Z, LOOK FOR N-NE
WINDS 15-25 KTS GUSTING NEAR 35 KTS.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY 16/06Z THROUGH SUNDAY 18/06Z...VFR CONDITIONS
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AFTER 18Z SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE E-NE THROUGH THE PERIOD, INITIALLY BETWEEN 15-25 KTS ON
FRIDAY, BECOMING LIGHTER 10-20 KTS ON SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
COOL AND WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WINDS ARE NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST 15-25 MPH
WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH ON THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, REMAINING ELEVATED
OVERNIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG/DOWNWIND OF HIGHER TERRAIN
FEATURES IN YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES AND NORTH OF THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. MIN RH IS 30-60% ON THURSDAY THEN 20-40% ON FRIDAY.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR EACH DAY. WINDS ARE 10-20
MPH FROM THE EAST ON SATURDAY, LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON SUNDAY, THEN
SOUTHWEST 5-15 MPH ON MONDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REMAIN 5-10
DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...KONIECZNY
FIRE WEATHER...JJ
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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