589
FXUS65 KFGZ 152303
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
403 PM MST THU OCT 15 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY, COOL, AND WINDY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY. TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY RETURN THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK, BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
STRONG EASTERLY GRADIENTS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. WIND SPEEDS BY LATE
THIS MORNING HAD EXCEEDED ALL GUIDANCE IN A FEW PLACES, ENOUGH TO
ASSUME THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR AWHILE. SO, WE ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES FOR NOW. THERE IS ALSO INDICATION
THAT A BAND OF STRONGER WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN NAVAJO AND
APACHE COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT AND MORE ZONES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED.
BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND, THE EASTERLIES WILL SUBSIDE AS A WEAK
UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA GETS PICKED UP BY AN AMPLIFYING
EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH. THIS WILL, ONCE AGAIN, PICK UP SOME TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND SLOWLY INTRODUCE SHOWER CHANCES BACK TO OUR AREA. BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK, A STRONG TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REMNANT MOISTURE
AND PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, POSSIBLY EVEN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IF THIS SOUNDS FAMILIAR, IT IS, BECAUSE
WE JUST DID IT LAST WEEK. WILL THIS BE A REPEAT? MAYBE, STAY TUNED
AND FIND OUT!
AVIATION...FRIDAY 16/00Z THROUGH SATURDAY 17/00Z
VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. NORTH THROUGH EAST WINDS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD,
GENERALLY BETWEEN 10-25 KTS, WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS NEAR 40
KTS.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY 17/00Z THROUGH MONDAY 19/00Z...WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH 10Z SATURDAY, BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
EXPECT COOL WITH GUSTY
CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE NORTHEAST TO EAST 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 35-45
MPH TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOCALLY GUSTIER WINDS UP TO 55
MPH POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF TERRAIN FEATURES IN YAVAPAI AND
COCONINO COUNTIES. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN
BECOME EAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST 10-20 MPH ON SATURDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES BY SATURDAY EVENING. MIN RH IS
20-35% EACH DAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
NORMAL.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY, CHANCES INCREASING AND SPREADING
TO MOST OF NORTHERN AZ ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ON SUNDAY, BECOMING SOUTH 5-15 MPH ON MONDAY, THEN SOUTH
THROUGH SOUTHWEST 10-20 MPH GUSTING TO 30 MPH ON TUESDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST /7 PM MDT/ FRIDAY FOR AZZ004-
006>008-015-037-038.
PUBLIC...PETERSON
AVIATION...KONIECZNY
FIRE WEATHER...LEWANDOWSKI
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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