439
FXUS65 KFGZ 161133
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
433 AM MST FRI OCT 16 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY, COOL, AND WINDY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY.
SATURDAY REMAINS COOL WITH LESS WIND. A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS
WILL IMPACT THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN, WITH A WEAK LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST.
THIS HAS CREATED STRONG EASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENTS, AND VERY
GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN AND
DOWNSLOPE REGIONS. SOME OF THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THE EVENT ARE
EXPECTED A BIT LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN THESE
AREAS, INCLUDING THE FLAGSTAFF REGION AND EVENTUALLY THE LITTLE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WHERE GUSTS OF 40-55 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
GRADIENTS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING,
THOUGH THERE WILL STILL BE GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST
MID DAY SATURDAY.
BY SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY, THE LOW OFF THE BAJA IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD, ALLOWING FOR
SOME MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH TO GET PULLED IN TOWARD OUR AREA. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES
THROUGH THIS PERIOD, ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. RAINFALL
TOTALS THROUGH MONDAY LOOK LIGHT FOR MOST AREAS, WITH SOME
LOCALIZED 0.50" AMOUNTS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY - A DEEPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY TUESDAY AND THEN
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME DEEPER MOISTURE
COULD BE DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM TOWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES OF 0.50" OR GREATER RAINFALL FROM WED AM
TO FRI AM ARE 50-70% ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN UPSLOPE REGIONS,
WITH 1.00" PROBABILITIES IN THE 30-50% RANGE. COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES IN.
AVIATION...FRIDAY 16/12Z THROUGH SATURDAY 17/12Z
VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS
GENERALLY BETWEEN 15-25 KTS, WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS NEAR 35-45 KTS
THROUGH AROUND 02Z. WINDS DECREASING TO 10-20 KTS WITH LOCALIZED
GUSTS 25-30 KTS AFTER 02Z.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY 17/12Z THROUGH MONDAY 19/12Z...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OUT OF THE EAST AT
10-20 KTS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY, BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. INCREASING CLOUDS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT ONWARD. BRIEF MVFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
COOL WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS.
WINDS ARE NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 35-45 MPH
TONIGHT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY GUSTIER WINDS UP TO 55 MPH
POSSIBLE ALONG/SOUTHWEST OF TERRAIN FEATURES IN YAVAPAI AND COCONINO
COUNTIES. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT, THEN BECOME EAST THROUGH
SOUTHEAST 10-20 MPH ON SATURDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES BY SATURDAY EVENING. MIN RH IS 15-35% EACH
DAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY, WITH CHANCES INCREASING AND SPREADING
TO MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS ARE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE ON SUNDAY, BECOMING SOUTH 5-15 MPH ON MONDAY, THEN
SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHWEST 10-20 MPH GUSTING TO 30 MPH ON TUESDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR AZZ004-
006>008-012>015-037-038.
PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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