323
FXUS65 KFGZ 162317
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
417 PM MST FRI OCT 16 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND WINDY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. LESS BREEZY ON SATURDAY, THEN A WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK
WITH CONTINUED DAILY SHOWER CHANCES, OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS, AND
BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
A STRONG EASTERLY GRADIENT IS STILL PRESENT EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS BROUGHT VERY GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND (WEST/SOUTHWEST)
OF TERRAIN FEATURES IN YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES, AS WELL AS
IN THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. PEAK GUSTS UP TO 40-50 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON, AND A WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ARIZONA THROUGH 6 PM MST TODAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
RELAX TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS, HOWEVER
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS 30-40 MPH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
OTHER THAN THE WINDS, EXPECT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
WILL SLOWLY PUSH INLAND ACROSS ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND, AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS START
TO ENCROACH OUR AREA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THEN CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY-
MONDAY. MOST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT,
BUT SOME LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 0.5'' WILL BE POSSIBLE.
INTO NEXT WEEK, WE REMAIN IN A HIGHLY ACTIVE PATTERN. A DEEP TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND DIVE ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON
TUESDAY, THEN EVENTUALLY PROPAGATE PAST ARIZONA LATER IN THE WEEK.
LONG TERM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HINTS THAT THIS WILL BRING A DEEPER
MOISTURE SURGE THAN THIS WEEKEND, HOWEVER THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TIMING/TRAJECTORY. THE CURRENT FORECAST
BRINGS DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, PEAKING ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BESIDES THE PRECIPITATION, EXPECT A RETURN
TO GUSTY WINDS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND CONTINUED COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION...SATURDAY 17/00Z THROUGH SUNDAY 18/00Z
VFR
CONDITIONS, NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WINDS NE-E 10-15KTS GUSTS
TO 25KTS UNTIL 03Z, NE-E 5-15KTS GUSTS TO 20KTS OVERNIGHT IN
HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS, LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR TERRAIN DRIVEN
LOWER ELEVATION TERMINALS, BECOMING E 5-15KTS, GUSTS TO 20KTS
AFTER 18Z ALL LOCATIONS.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY 18/00Z THROUGH TUESDAY 20/00Z...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS, BRIEF MVFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES IN AFTER 00Z SUNDAY,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS VARIABLE 5-15KTS SUNDAY, S-SW 5-15KTS
MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
COOL TEMPERATURES WITH
EAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10-20 MPH ON SATURDAY, BECOMING
LIGHT ON SUNDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MINIMUM RH
IS 15-35% ON SATURDAY, INCREASING TO 40-70% ON SUNDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTH WINDS 5-15 MPH ON
MONDAY, BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH ON
TUESDAY, INCREASING TO 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR AZZ004-
006>008-012>015-037-038.
PUBLIC...LEWANDOWSKI
AVIATION...BERNHART
FIRE WEATHER...MEOLA
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page