948
FXUS65 KFGZ 171149
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
449 AM MST SAT OCT 17 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER EAST WIND IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, THEN A WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED
DAILY SHOWER CHANCES, OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS, AND BELOW NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF RAIN NEXT WEEK IS ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
A CLOSED LOW OFF THE BAJA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
DRIFT NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. A VERY DRY AIR
MASS IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOLLOWING A COUPLE DAYS OF EASTERLY
WINDS, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 0.10" IN
NORTHEAST AZ TO AROUND 0.40" IN SOUTHERN YAVAPAI COUNTY. THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND LOCATIONS JUST DOWNWIND THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MUCH
LIGHTER THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS THE LOW
OFF BAJA MOVES CLOSER, WE WILL START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FORECAST TO RISE TO 0.60"
TO 0.90" FROM ABOUT THE MOGOLLON RIM SOUTHWARD BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS WILL BE A TOP DOWN
MOISTENING PROCESS, WITH THE LOWER LEVELS REMAINING PRETTY DRY AT
LEAST INITIALLY. THIS MAY LIMIT PRECIPITATION COVERAGE/INTENSITY
THIS EVENING INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SUNDAY, BEFORE THE LOW LEVELS
MOISTEN FURTHER AND LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING LOW BRINGS MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. NOT EXPECTING HEAVY RAINFALL OUT OF THIS
SYSTEM, WITH MOST AREAS RANGING FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS UP TO 0.30",
AND NBM PROBABILITIES OF OVER 0.30" ARE ONLY 20-40% - FOCUSED ON
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY - THE WEEKEND LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AS ANOTHER STRONGER LOW DIVES SOUTHWARD JUST OFF THE
WEST COAST. EXPECTING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY A
10-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD. FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, THE LOW OFF THE COAST IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN
STRENGTH/TIMING OF THE SYSTEM, BUT STILL EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCES LATER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THIS
SYSTEM COULD TAP SOME DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND BRING A
THREAT OF SOME HEAVIER RAIN, BUT IT'S TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFICS. FOR
NOW, WPC HAS PLACED OUR REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION...SATURDAY 17/12Z THROUGH SUNDAY 18/12Z
VFR CONDITIONS,
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 00Z WHEN SCATTERED -SHRA
SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WINDS NE-E 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS THROUGH
AROUND 18Z HIGHER ELEVATIONS, LIGHT AND VARIABLE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
WINDS BECOMING E 5-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS 18Z-01Z, THEN
LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY 18/12Z THROUGH TUESDAY 20/12Z...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS,
BRIEF MVFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH THE BEST CHANCES
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS VARIABLE 5-15 KTS SUNDAY, S-SW 5-15
KTS MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
COOL TEMPERATURES WITH
EAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10-20 MPH TODAY, BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BY THIS EVENING, CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RH IS 15-30% TODAY,
INCREASING TO 40-70% ON SUNDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTH WINDS 5-15 MPH ON MONDAY, BECOMING SOUTH
10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH ON TUESDAY, THEN INCREASING TO
15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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