140
FXUS63 KFSD 201721
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1121 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TODAY, WITH GUSTS RANGING
BETWEEN 40 TO 60 MPH.
- A NARROW CORRIDOR OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
WEST OF I-29 BETWEEN THE JAMES AND BIG SIOUX RIVER VALLEY.
- LIGHT SNOW (LESS THAN AN INCH) IS EXPECTED IN AREAS ALONG AND
NORTHEAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM HURON-SIOUX FALLS- SPIRIT
LAKE. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND FALLING/BLOWING SNOW
WILL RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL.
- COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS ARE LIKELY
THURSDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOWING GUSTS BETWEEN 40 TO 50 MPH. LATEST
RADAR IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-
90. AS ALLUDED TO IN DAYS PAST, WILL SEE SNOW, ALBEIT LIGHT, LINGER
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WRAPS OVERHEAD. THAT BEING
SAID, RECENT CAMS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
HIGHER SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF I-29, ON THE WESTERN SIDE
OF THE COTEAU. LATEST QPF WOULD SUGGEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RANGING
BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS STILL POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE EFFECTS OF TERRAIN. THUS, BELIEVE THE CURRENT WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
IN REGARD TO WINDS, LOOK FOR GUSTS TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SPG STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 40 TO 60 MPH, THE STRONGEST OCCURRING ALONG AND
WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. AS SUCH, HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE HIGH
WIND WARNING FURTHER EAST. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED OUR WIND ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE OUR REMAINING MINNESOTA AND IOWA COUNTIES. FURTHER EXPANSION
TO THE HIGH WIND WARNING MAY STILL BE NEEDED, DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
MIXING WE CAN ACHIEVE - SO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR THE
LATEST UPDATES.
IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, WANT TO STRESS THAT REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ANY AREA THAT RECEIVES SNOW, REGARDLESS OF HOW HIGH THE
PROJECTED ACCUMULATIONS AREA. HAVE ALREADY SEEN A FEW LOCATIONS
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR DROP TO ONE MILE. SO, WE STRONGLY
ENCOURAGE YOU TO PROCEED WITH CAUTION IF YOU MUST TRAVEL TODAY. HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD ALSO EXERCISE CAUTION, ESPECIALLY IF DRIVING
ON NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED ROADS.
OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN COOL TODAY, AS HIGHS ONLY
PEAK IN THE UPPER 20S TO 30S. SNOW GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS EVENING, WITH WINDS FORECAST TO WEAKEN A BIT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WITH THE AID OF EFFICIENT CAA, EXPECT OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S, WITH WIND CHILLS VALUES
PLUMMETING INTO THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS. SO, BE SURE TO BUNDLE UP
BEFORE HEADING OUTDOORS THURSDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK, KEEPING COOLER TEMPERATURES AROUND A BIT LONGER.
CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S, WITH LOWS LARGELY IN
THE 20S. DRY WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME,
WITH OUR NEXT SHOT OF PRECIPITATION, ALBEIT LOW (<20%) OCCURRING
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE IN MANY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AS
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA.
VISIBILITY LOCALLY IN SNOW MAY FALL TO 1-2 MILES, BUT DURATION
WILL BE LIMITED.
HIGH WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS, ONLY DROPPING BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS BY
MIDNIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE GUSTY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN OVERCAST AT MVFR LEVELS IN AREAS GENERALLY
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SOME
GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST SLOW WEST TO EAST IMPROVEMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT, WITH ONLY SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA SHOWING SIGNS OF
LINGERING STRATUS THROUGH THE MORNING.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ038>040-
053>056-060>062-066-067-070-071.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ039-
054-055.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ050-052-
057>059-063>065-068-069.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ071-072-080-
081-089-090-097-098.
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ001>003-
012>014-020>022-031-032.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ013-014.
DISCUSSION...SST
AVIATION...DUX
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