832
FXUS63 KFSD 300908
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
308 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FLURRIES MAY LINGER THIS MORNING BUT NO ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
- PATCHY BLOWING OR DRIFTING SNOW MAY CONTINUE EAST OF I-29
THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS
AND IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL, KEEP A PREPAREDNESS KIT IN YOUR
VEHICLE.
- MUCH COLDER AIR PREVAILS THIS WEEK. MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH NIGHTTIME WIND CHILLS BELOW
0F. COLDEST LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING,
WITH WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS 20 BELOW.
- LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IMPACTS LOOK TO BE
MINOR AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
TODAY: WITH STRATUS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA, MAY CONTINUE TO SEE
FLURRIES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS; HOWEVER, NO ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WINDS TAPER DOWN THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH LINGERING LONGEST ALONG AND EAST
IA/MN STATE HWY 60. PATCHY BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW MAY CONTINUE TO
IMPACT TRAVEL. CHECK TRAVEL CONDITIONS BEFORE YOU HEAD OUT.
OTHERWISE, CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR TODAY AND WE'LL SEE CLOUDS
INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH. HIGHS TODAY IN THE TEENS, NOT
MUCH DIFFERENT THAN OUR TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM. WE MAY COOL A FEW
DEGREES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BEFORE DAYBREAK IF THE STRATUS CAN
CLEAR SOME. REGARDLESS, WIND CHILLS THIS MORNING ARE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO.
TONIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT: LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
INCREASED POPS AND QPF FROM THE NBM FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
EVENING, AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH NE FOLLOWED BY A TRAILING
TROUGH AXIS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A LOW TO MODERATE (LESS
THAN 50%) OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM AND SOUTHEAST OF A
YANKTON TO SIOUX FALLS TO WINDOM LINE. PROBABILITY OF A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR MORE ARE VERY LOW - LESS THAN 15% - SO IF WE SEE SNOW,
AMOUNTS WOULD BE VERY LIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS DURING THIS TIME LOOK
TO BE OFFSET IN LOCATION FROM THE POSSIBLE SNOWFALL, SO IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MINOR. GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH COULD LEAD TO SOME VERY
PATCHY BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW AT TIMES.
WAA AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ALLOW FOR A RELATIVELY WARMER, BUT STILL
COLDER THAN AVERAGE DAY TO START METEOROLOGICAL WINTER MONDAY. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT AGAIN FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS EITHER SIDE OF ZERO.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, BRINGING A PUSH OF EVEN COLDER AIR.
MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH THE FROPA TUESDAY EVENING AND INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE VARIES ON THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF NOT ONLY THE SURFACE FRONT BUT ALSO FORCING ALOFT. SOME
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION; HOWEVER, MOST SOUNDINGS SHOW SNOW AS THE PREVAILING P-
TYPE. WITH COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SWINGING IN BEHIND THIS,
COLDER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS PUTS HIGHS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S FOR MOST OF THE AREA, AND WEDNESDAY WILL FEEL EVEN
COLDER WITH BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS HAVE
TRENDED 10+ DEGREES COLDER IN THE LAST 24 HOURS, NOW IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO - PUTTING WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S BELOW.
LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND: MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. GUIDANCE IS VARIED
ON THE DETAILS (SUCH AS TIMING/TRACK OF ANY WAVES), BUT A MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING.
BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS
MAY RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. A LARGE
AREA OF MVFR STRATUS HAS BEGUN TO PUSH INTO THE AREA OUT OF NORTH
DAKOTA. SOME FLURRIES HAVE BEEN REPORTED BENEATH THE STRATUS THOUGH
HAVE LEFT OUT OF ALL TAFS AT THIS TIME GIVEN HOW IT HAS ONLY BEEN A
FEW LOCATIONS REPORTING IT. THE STRATUS IS STREAMING SOUTHWARD JUST
WEST OF I-29. WITH THE STRATUS GRAZING THE INTERSTATE, HAVE DECIDED
TO PUT MVFR CEILINGS IN KFSD AND KSUX TAF FOR TONIGHT BUT WILL
MONITOR TRENDS.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES IN THE MVFR STRATUS'S COVERAGE FOR THE DAY
TOMORROW. CURRENTLY HAVE THE STRATUS BREAKING UP BUT COULD SEE THE
STRATUS PERSIST FOR A LARGE PART OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY TOMORROW EVENING. SHOULD SEE
WINDS TURN TO OUT OF THE SOUTH TO END THE TAF PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SG
AVIATION...MEYERS
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