250
FXUS63 KFSD 302045
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
245 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTRY COLD CONTINUES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH NIGHTTIME
WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO.
- SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW MAY BRING MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE UNDER
A HALF INCH OF NEW SNOW.
- LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT, WIND
CHILLS OF -10 TO -25F LOOK INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
TONIGHT AND MONDAY: 20Z SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW DRY AIR FILTERING
IN FROM THE NORTH HAS ERODED MUCH OF THE MORNING'S STRATUS EAST
OF I- 29, BUT STUBBORN STRATUS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE FLURRIES
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SD AND NORTHEAST NE THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS HAVE UNDERESTIMATED LINGERING STRATUS AND FLURRIES TODAY
BUT FAVOR A QUICKLY SATURATED NEAR-SURFACE LAYER AFTER SUNSET.
GIVEN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS, HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION TONIGHT. COULD CERTAINLY SEE AREAS OF OR
WIDESPREAD FOG, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO ADD GIVEN POOR
MODEL PERFORMANCE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO MONDAY MORNING.
BESIDES POTENTIAL FOR FOG, THE MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT IS ON INCREASING
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH A PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS. DESPITE HESITANCY FROM THE NBM AND
GIVEN TODAY'S DRY BIAS FROM MODELS, OPTED TO INCREASE SNOW CHANCES
AND QPF TOWARD WPC/HRRR/RAP FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON
NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR. 12Z HREF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA,
GENERALLY UNDER A HALF INCH AND HIGHEST NEAR THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR.
EXPECT THIS TO ONLY BRING MINOR IMPACTS TO ALREADY WINTRY ROAD
CONDITIONS. FURTHERMORE, CLOUDY SKIES, A SOUTH BREEZE AND HIGHS IN
THE 20S ON MONDAY WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY START TO THE WEEK.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY: TEMPERATURES DROP NEAR TO BELOW ZERO
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES. BROAD 925-850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S., AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY
APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR FOG MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
WITH A STOUT NOCTURNAL INVERSION DEVELOPED ATOP A SATURATED SFC
LAYER.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE NOTABLY WARMER THAN MONDAY IF NIGHTTIME FOG AND/OR
STRATUS CAN MIX OUT. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE BACK INTO THE
20S, AND EVEN 30S WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER WHERE THE SNOWPACK IS
LESSER.
MID WEEK: TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY SEES THE PASSAGE OF A STOUT
COLD FRONT, PLUNGING US BACK INTO EVEN COLDER AIR. LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES ARE LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
EARLY WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THIS COULD BRING SOME MINOR
IMPACTS TO THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING A MAJOR TEMPERATURE DROP WEDNESDAY NIGHT IF SKIES CAN
CLEAR. TEMPERATURES MAY REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW ZERO,
WITH A WIND CHILL NEARING -10 TO -25F. THURSDAY MORNING HAS
CERTAINLY BECOME A PERIOD TO WATCH FOR UNUSUALLY COLD TEMPERATURES.
LATE WEEK: FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, STRONG UPPER RIDGING IN THE
PACIFIC BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN, PLANTING THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO A MORE
ACTIVE ZONAL FLOW REGIME FOR LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS IMPACTING
THE REGION BUT TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED TO BE MORE WINTRY/BELOW
NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AROUND 30.18Z SHOW MVFR STRATUS AND
ASSOCIATED FLURRIES ARE SLOWLY ERODING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH. MAY SEE CEILINGS SCATTERED TO VFR AT ALL THREE
TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS EVENING, MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IFR TO MVFR
STRATUS AND FOG WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP AROUND SUNSET AND LINGER
INTO MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE NEW SNOWPACK, CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND LINGERING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR LOCATIONS NEAR AND EAST OF THE I-29
CORRIDOR. COULD SEE WIDESPREAD LIFR TO IFR VSBY AND CEILINGS BUT
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE WAS TOO LOW TO DEGRADE THAT FAR AT THIS
TIME.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE TURNS WINDS SOUTHERLY MONDAY
MORNING AND BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW
NEAR AND SOUTH OF A YANKTON TO SIOUX FALLS TO WINDOM LINE. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE UNDER A HALF INCH.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BP
AVIATION...BP
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