598
FXUS63 KFSD 030904
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
304 AM CST WED DEC 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- ISOLATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION, A MIX OF SNOW AND LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN, DIMINISHES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING. BE
PREPARED FOR ISOLATED SLICK SPOTS.
- WIND CHILL VALUES DROP TO -10 TO -25 IN MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
- STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY
LEADING TO PATCHY BLOWING SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN
MN AND NORTHWESTERN IA.
- DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, BUT ADDITIONAL SNOW AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST WED DEC 3 2025
TODAY: A MILD MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING A BIT EARLY IN THE
OVERNIGHT, AND STAYING STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING, THANKS TO WAA
WINNING OUT AND CONTINUED STRATUS. OUR 1 AM CST TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S, AND MOST LOCATIONS HAVE STARTED
FALLING THROUGH 2 AM. COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THOUGH THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA, SO ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
SOUTH OF I-90. ELSEWHERE AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, SCATTERED
FLURRIES LINGER. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY SLICK SPOTS, ESPECIALLY ON
ELEVATED AND UNTREATED SURFACES.
WITH THE PUSH OF CAA AND COLDER TEMPERATURES, EXPECT STEADY TO
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. HIGHS WILL HAVE ALREADY
BEEN REACHED THIS MORNING, AND EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS AND 20S. EXPECT BREEZY WINDS, WITH GUSTS TODAY AROUND 25 MPH,
LEADING TO WIND CHILLS NEAR TO BELOW ZERO.
TONIGHT: MUCH COLDER 925MB TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES THANKS
TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS
AND SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO EAST OF I-29, TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL SD. EVEN
WITH LIGHTER WINDS, WIND CHILLS FALL TO AS COLD AS -25 F. AREAS
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN INTO NORTHWESTERN IA LOOK TO BE THE LOWEST.
SOME LOCATIONS DO DROP TO COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A FEW
HOURS; HOWEVER, CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL ENOUGH TO FORGO A HEADLINE
AT THIS TIME.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST THURSDAY,
AND WE'LL SEE STRONGER WINDS BETWEEN THE COMPRESSED SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND MIXING INTO SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. MAY SEE SOME
GUSTS THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AROUND 30 MPH. BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE ADDED BLOWING SNOW MENTION TO
THE GRIDS.
INCREASED WAA AND CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD AID IN WARMING US
UP INTO THE 20S TO MID 30S, WARMEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD. SHORT WAVE
AND SUBTLE SURFACE FRONT MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
WITH A STRONGER WAVE AND FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
MAY SEE ANOTHER NON-DIRUNAL TEMPERATURE SWING FRIDAY. ADDITIONALLY,
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED PRECIPITATION WITH THROUGH THIS PERIOD
WITH THE BOUNDARIES, BUT GUIDANCE SHOWS BOTH FRONTS BEING FAIRLY
MOISTURE STARVED SO MOST SHOULD STAY DRY.
SATURDAY ONWARD: GUIDANCE DIVERGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH REGARDS
TO ANY WAVES/SYSTEMS. GENERALLY, NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THE
HORIZON EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRECIPITATION WISE, ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE SPLIT ON WHERE A WAVE TRACKS
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY (60% OR
MORE ACROSS THE AREA OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION). THE GFS TRACKS
PRECIP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MO VALLEY, THE CANADIAN ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN MN, AND THE ECMWF IN THE MIDDLE. TIMING AND STRENGTH
VARY QUITE A BIT, SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN DETAILS.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK, AND
COULD SEE A FEW SHORT WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. A STRONGER WAVE IS PROGGED TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION MID NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CST TUE DEC 2 2025
MOSTLY MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE
THIS TAF PERIOD MAINLY DUE TO LINGERING STRATUS. TAKING A LOOK
AT SATELLITE IMAGERY, POCKETS OF FLURRIES AND WINTRY MIX CONTINUE
TO PROGRESS EASTWARDS THIS EVENING. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
FOR MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TO EXIT THE AREA AROUND 06Z (12 AM).
FROM HERE, LINGERING MVFR TO LIFR STRATUS WILL PERSIST FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN. LASTLY,
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AND BREEZY
OVERNIGHT WITH THE BREEZINESS CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY TO END THE TAF PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SG
AVIATION...05
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