205
FXUS64 KFWD 030557
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1157 PM CST TUE DEC 2 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A BRIEF WARM-UP IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING COLD
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
- NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST TUE DEC 2 2025
QUIET BUT CHILLY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE REGION, AND A
LIGHT FREEZE IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW 30S. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN LATER THIS MORNING AS
A SURFACE LOW AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT, MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD
INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT IS
SLATED TO ARRIVE IN OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON,
CONTINUING THROUGH NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING, AND CENTRAL TEXAS
OVERNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS LATE
THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT'S ARRIVAL. THE LIGHTNING
POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW, BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
THE ARRIVAL OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO BLOSSOM
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS HEADING
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SOME DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS/THE BIG COUNTRY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, BUT
LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND WARMER. AS A RESULT, ANY
MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST.
IF TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO DIP TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING IN
ANY AREAS, THIS COULD RESULT IN VERY LOCALIZED OCCURRENCES OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE. HOWEVER, ANY DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION
TO RAIN AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING, AND NO IMPACTS WOULD BE
EXPECTED. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY, WITH COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO
LOW 50S AND A BRISK NORTH WIND AROUND 10-20 MPH.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST TUE DEC 2 2025
RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS EXPECTED,
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO 30S ACROSS THE
REGION. SKIES SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING ON FRIDAY, WITH ANY
LINGERING RAIN CHANCES IN CENTRAL TEXAS EXPECTED TO END DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A COOL DAY CAN BE EXPECTED, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW 50S TO LOW 60S.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S/60S EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY, WHICH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA RAIN-FREE. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST TUE DEC 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS FOR A
FEW HOURS LATER THIS MORNING (15-19Z).
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING (01-02Z FOR
THE METROPLEX, ~04Z FOR KACT), BRINGING A NORTH WIND SHIFT BEHIND
THE FRONT. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 5-7 KNOTS IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING FROPA, BUT WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MVFR STRATUS WILL DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS
BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/PATCHY DRIZZLE. IFR
STRATUS MAY DEVELOP AT KACT, MOST LIKELY AFTER 06Z IF IT DOES
OCCUR. KACT COULD SEE SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE DEVELOP AS EARLY AS
02-03Z, BUT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE
TERMINAL, SO ANY MENTION OF PRECIP HAS BEEN OMITTED FROM THE TAF
AT THIS TIME. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR ALL TERMINALS AFTER
12Z THURSDAY AS SCATTERED SHOWERS BLOSSOM ACROSS THE REGION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 50 37 62 38 / 0 0 0 10
WACO 52 37 65 44 / 0 0 0 20
PARIS 49 30 57 38 / 0 0 0 10
DENTON 50 34 61 34 / 0 0 0 10
MCKINNEY 50 34 60 37 / 0 0 0 10
DALLAS 50 37 63 40 / 0 0 0 10
TERRELL 52 33 61 40 / 0 0 0 20
CORSICANA 49 37 64 45 / 0 0 0 30
TEMPLE 53 35 66 44 / 0 0 0 20
MINERAL WELLS 53 35 67 36 / 0 0 0 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM....BARNES
AVIATION...BARNES
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