762
FXUS64 KFWD 031118
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
518 AM CST WED DEC 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A BRIEF WARM-UP CONTINUES UNTIL ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT
ARRIVES LATE TODAY, BRINGING COLD TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES
BACK TO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
- NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST TUE DEC 2 2025
QUIET BUT CHILLY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE REGION, AND A
LIGHT FREEZE IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW 30S. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN LATER THIS MORNING AS
A SURFACE LOW AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT, MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD
INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT IS
SLATED TO ARRIVE IN OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON,
CONTINUING THROUGH NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING, AND CENTRAL TEXAS
OVERNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS LATE
THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT'S ARRIVAL. THE LIGHTNING
POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW, BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
THE ARRIVAL OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO BLOSSOM
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS HEADING
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SOME DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS/THE BIG COUNTRY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, BUT
LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND WARMER. AS A RESULT, ANY
MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST.
IF TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO DIP TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING IN
ANY AREAS, THIS COULD RESULT IN VERY LOCALIZED OCCURRENCES OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE. HOWEVER, ANY DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION
TO RAIN AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING, AND NO IMPACTS WOULD BE
EXPECTED. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY, WITH COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO
LOW 50S AND A BRISK NORTH WIND AROUND 10-20 MPH.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST TUE DEC 2 2025
RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS EXPECTED,
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO 30S ACROSS THE
REGION. SKIES SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING ON FRIDAY, WITH ANY
LINGERING RAIN CHANCES IN CENTRAL TEXAS EXPECTED TO END DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A COOL DAY CAN BE EXPECTED, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW 50S TO LOW 60S.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S/60S EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY, WHICH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA RAIN-FREE. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 516 AM CST WED DEC 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING (15-19Z).
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING, BRINGING A
NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND
5-7 KNOTS IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING FROPA, BUT WILL INCREASE TO 10-15
KNOTS AFTER 06Z. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY.
IN ADDITION TO THE CEILINGS, MVFR VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN
INTRODUCED TO THE KACT TAF LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, AND VCSH HAS BEEN INTRODUCED
TO THE DFW EXTENDED TAF. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEFORE THEN ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS, BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN EAST OF THE KACT TERMINAL, WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
AFTER 12Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 62 40 45 36 / 0 10 30 10
WACO 64 44 48 38 / 10 20 40 20
PARIS 56 39 47 33 / 0 10 30 20
DENTON 61 36 44 31 / 0 10 20 10
MCKINNEY 59 38 45 34 / 0 10 30 10
DALLAS 62 41 48 35 / 0 10 30 10
TERRELL 60 43 48 35 / 0 20 40 20
CORSICANA 62 46 50 40 / 0 40 40 20
TEMPLE 67 44 50 38 / 10 30 40 20
MINERAL WELLS 67 37 47 32 / 0 10 30 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM....BARNES
AVIATION...BARNES
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