420
FXUS64 KFWD 031911
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
111 PM CST WED DEC 3 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A BRIEF WARM-UP IS FORECAST TODAY, BUT ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT
ARRIVES TONIGHT WITH TOMORROW BEING COOL AND CLOUDY.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, MAINLY ACROSS EAST
TEXAS AND THE BRAZOS VALLEY. OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS
EXPECTED FURTHER WEST AND NORTH.
- NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CST WED DEC 3 2025
THE REGION WILL BE UNDERGOING A MINI FORM OF TEMPERATURE WHIPLASH
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. YESTERDAY WAS COOL AND SUNNY, TODAY WILL
BE MILD AND MOSTLY SUNNY (FOR THE WESTERN 2/3RDS), AND TOMORROW
WILL BE COOL AND DREARY. SO, WHAT'S CAUSING THIS...A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED NEAR WICHITA FALLS WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE CAPROCK. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL
GRADUALLY FILL OVER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SLOWLY MOVING EAST
INTO/NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR EARLY TONIGHT. AS BRIEFLY ALLUDED TO
ABOVE, WIDESPREAD STRATUS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
EAST TEXAS AND THE BRAZOS VALLEY TODAY, KEEPING THOSE AREAS COOL.
A MUCH STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AND COOLER AIRMASS (I.E.
STRONG COLD FRONT) WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY OVERTAKE/WASH OUT THE SURFACE LOW. A SHALLOW LAYER OF
COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL THEN MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE
A NARROW CORRIDOR BETWEEN THE STRATUS TO THE EAST AND THE DRIER
AIR TO THE WEST WHERE "EDGE OF THE STRATUS" FOG IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE FOG SHOULD BE SHORT-
LIVED AND TRANSITORY (GENERALLY MOVING FROM NE TO SW), BUT MAY BE
DENSE AT TIMES. WE'RE NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THE AREAL COVERAGE OR
LONGEVITY OF THE FOG TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME,
BUT KNOW IT MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR PARTS OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TOMORROW MORNING.
LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVERTOP OF THE COOL AIRMASS WILL RAMP
UP (YES, PUN INTENDED) THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW MORNING, MAINLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE'RE FORECASTING A
BROAD AREA OF LIGHT STRATIFORM PRECIP TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER
EASTERN CENTRAL TEXAS, BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT ACROSS ALL
OF EAST TEXAS. INSTABILITY IS MEAGER, BUT A FEW ELEVATED UPDRAFTS
MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A RUMBLE OR TWO OF
THUNDER TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE
FAR SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO BRUSH ACROSS OUR AREA TOMORROW, RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SPOTTY LIGHT STRATIFORM PRECIP OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. BY THE
END OF THE DAY TOMORROW, MEASURABLE PRECIP IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA,
WITH MOST OF THE AREA BETWEEN THESE TWO (INCLUDING THE METROPLEX)
RECEIVING VERY LITTLE, IF ANY, MEASURABLE PRECIP. ALL PRECIP-
INDUCING ASCENT SHOULD MOVE EAST BY TOMORROW EVENING, WITH NO
MENTIONABLE PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD MENTION OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE OR
SLEET ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW MORNING. THE LATEST DATA HAS TEMPERATURES REMAINING
ABOVE FREEZING THE ENTIRE TIME PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED, SO WE
ARE ONLY FORECASTING A COLD RAIN AT THIS TIME. THERE IS STILL AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE COMES IN COOLER AND
FALLS TO 31-32 DEGREES FOR SOME OF THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PARTS
OF OUR AREA (ROUGHLY NORTHWEST OF BRECKENRIDGE -> JACKSBORO ->
GAINESVILLE) WHILE PRECIP IS FALLING. ONLY 5-10% OF THE DATA HAS
THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDING. IF THIS WERE TO HAPPEN, FREEZING DRIZZLE
IS THE MOST LIKELY PRECIP-TYPE WITH LITTLE TO NO ICE ACCUMULATION.
AT WORST, THERE MAY BE A FEW SLICK SPOTS ON BRIDGES AND ELEVATED
SURFACES.
OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION, TOMORROW IS FORECAST TO BE COOL, CLOUDY,
AND BREEZY. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ONLY FORECAST TO PEAK IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S, WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S. WELCOME TO WINTER!
BONNETTE
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CST WED DEC 3 2025
TOMORROW'S SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT, OPENING THE DOOR FOR
QUIETER WEATHER IN ITS WAKE. WE'RE FORECASTING ANOTHER WIDESPREAD
FREEZE FOR THOSE NORTH AND WEST OF THE METROPLEX, BUT MOST WITHIN
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING TOMORROW
NIGHT.
DESPITE NO SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE FORECAST, OUR AREA WILL REMAIN
UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A FEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS/WIND
SHIFTS/COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BY-IN-LARGE, WE SHOULD BE TOO DRY TO RECEIVE MEASURABLE
RAINFALL WITH ANY OF THESE SYSTEM, BUT DO EXPECT THE TEMPERATURES
TO SEESAW UP AND DOWN FOR A FEW DAYS. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANY
HIGH-IMPACT WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY, SO
KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST FORECAST FOR SPECIFICS AT WEATHER.GOV/FWD.
BONNETTE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CST WED DEC 3 2025
SOUTH FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE D10 TERMINALS TODAY, BUT A SOLID
SHEET OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS BLANKETS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR AREA
AND THE ACT TERMINAL. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH D10 THIS EVENING, RESULTING IN SOMEWHAT ERRATIC WINDS
AFTER THE SUN SETS. FOR NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THE WIND WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY, THEN NORTHEASTERLY LATER TONIGHT WITH N FLOW
PREVAILING THEREAFTER.
WE ARE FORECASTING A NARROW CORRIDOR OF FOG TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE
STRATUS TO THE EAST AND THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. THIS LOOKS TO
OCCUR NEAR D10/I-35 CORRIDOR TONIGHT, MAINLY BETWEEN ABOUT 04-10Z.
WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT IN DENSE FOG, SO WE ONLY INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR
LOW-END IFR VIS AND LIFR CEILINGS AT THIS TIME. STRONGER WINDS
SHOULD MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT, CLEARING THE FOG AND LIFTING IT INTO
A STRATUS DECK. AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST ALL DAY
TOMORROW, BUT IFR WILL BE LIKELY IN THE MORNING THAT MAY EXTEND
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON.
REGARDING PRECIP...MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE IS FORECAST FOR
THE TAF SITES, WHICH SHOULDN'T CAUSE MUCH OF AN OPERATIONAL
IMPACT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF STRONGER SHOWERS AT ACT, BUT ALL
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE SE OF D10 AND ACT.
BONNETTE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 60 40 43 34 / 0 10 30 10
WACO 60 45 47 37 / 0 30 50 10
PARIS 51 39 42 32 / 0 10 30 10
DENTON 60 35 42 28 / 0 10 30 0
MCKINNEY 58 38 42 32 / 0 10 30 10
DALLAS 60 42 44 35 / 0 10 40 10
TERRELL 55 42 46 34 / 0 20 50 10
CORSICANA 54 46 47 38 / 0 50 60 10
TEMPLE 60 45 47 37 / 10 30 50 10
MINERAL WELLS 62 37 43 29 / 0 10 40 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BONNETTE
LONG TERM....BONNETTE
AVIATION...BONNETTE
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