968
FXUS64 KFWD 041133
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
533 AM CST THU DEC 4 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- TODAY WILL BE COOL AND CLOUDY BEHIND LAST NIGHT'S COLD FRONT.
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA TODAY. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING.
- NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST THU DEC 4 2025
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION, WITH
SOME LINGERING PATCHY FOG ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS
MORNING, SO POPS WERE EXPANDED A BIT FURTHER NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS ACTIVITY. FORTUNATELY, TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA, SO ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH/NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CST THU DEC 4 2025
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN, PATCHY DRIZZLE, AND PATCHY FOG WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT, WITH
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS WE GET CLOSER
TO DAYBREAK. DENSE FOG HAS BEEN VERY ISOLATED, SO WE'LL CONTINUE
TO HOLD OFF ON A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTHWARD, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS BECOMING BREEZY OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. WHILE TEMPERATURES MAY GET RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE
32 DEGREE MARK IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS, THEY SHOULD STAY
COMFORTABLY ABOVE FREEZING, KEEPING A COLD RAIN OR DRIZZLE AS THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE. PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER
THE SHALLOW, COLD, POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL ALLOW RAIN AND
PATCHY DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE COLD AIR
COMBINED WITH OVERCAST SKIES WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER CHILLY AND
DREARY DAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 40S AREAWIDE.
ANY ONGOING RAIN/DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY END FROM
WEST TO EAST AS DRIER AIR FINALLY FILTERS INTO THE REGION. LOW
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING, LIKELY NOT CLEARING OUT FOR
MOST AREAS UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER, DENSE CIRRUS WILL KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. A LIGHT FREEZE IS
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE DFW METROPLEX. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NEAR THE RED RIVER TO UPPER 30S IN
THE BRAZOS VALLEY.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY, WITH CLOUD COVER
STICKING AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EAST TEXAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DECENT WEST TO EAST TEMPERATURE
SPREAD FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S IN
CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS AND IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CST THU DEC 4 2025
A BIT OF A TEMPERATURE ROLLERCOASTER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR
ZERO. SUNNY SKIES WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY, WITH A BRIEF WARM UP
EXPECTED AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER
60S. A FEW LOCATIONS IN WESTERN NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS COULD EVEN
SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S. THIS WARM UP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED WITH THE WEEKEND FRONT, AS
MOISTURE WILL NOT HAVE SUFFICIENTLY RECOVERED. COOLER TEMPERATURES
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S ARE EXPECTED BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S LIKELY
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
FROM TUESDAY ONWARD, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 60S AND
LOW 70S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST THU DEC 4 2025
IFR CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED TO MVFR ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AS EXPECTED.
VFR HAS BEEN INTERMITTENT AT A FEW OF THE TERMINALS OVER THE PAST
HOUR OR TWO, BUT STILL EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE MORNING AND PART OF THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY RAIN/DRIZZLE HAS
BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND HAS BEEN RATHER HIT-
OR-MISS IN CENTRAL TEXAS. HOWEVER, WE'RE STARTING TO SEE A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN THIS ACTIVITY, SO WE'LL KEEP DZ/VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR
NOW. LIFR AND DZ/RA CONTINUE AT KACT, BUT CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO
MVFR LATER THIS MORNING, LIKELY WHEN ANY PRECIP COMES TO AN END.
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH CEILING TRENDS
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT KEPT TAFS SLIGHTLY ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE
FOR NOW. CEILINGS WILL SEE SOME IMPROVEMENTS AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON, WITH VFR EXPECTED TO RETURN SOMETIME BETWEEN 21-00Z AT
ALL TERMINALS. NORTH WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL
WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIGHT THIS EVENING. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY MORNING, WITH WIND
SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 5 KNOTS. GUIDANCE STILL KEEPS ANY CEILINGS WELL
EAST OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING, SO VFR IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 45 34 54 40 / 30 0 0 0
WACO 49 37 52 42 / 40 0 10 0
PARIS 44 31 49 35 / 40 0 0 0
DENTON 44 29 54 35 / 20 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 44 30 52 38 / 30 0 0 0
DALLAS 47 35 54 41 / 30 0 0 0
TERRELL 47 33 52 39 / 40 0 0 0
CORSICANA 49 37 53 43 / 50 10 10 10
TEMPLE 50 37 54 42 / 40 10 10 0
MINERAL WELLS 47 30 60 36 / 20 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM....BARNES
AVIATION...BARNES
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