853
FXUS64 KFWD 060604
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1204 AM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS.
- NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY,
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
LATE EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONTINUED STREAM OF HIGH
CLOUD COVER EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND INTO TEXAS. THIS
IS COURTESY OF A 140 KT UPPER JET TAPPED INTO PACIFIC MOISTURE ON
THE EAST SIDE OF AN ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS DRAPED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. WHILE THE CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN THICK, THE SUB CLOUD
LAYER IS FAIRLY DRY RESULTING IN PRECIPITATION FREE CONDITIONS.
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL TO OUR WEST, MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT, HOWEVER A LACK OF
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE WILL KEEP ANY RAIN FROM DEVELOPING. AT THE
SURFACE THOUGH, A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS NOTED OVER WEST-
CENTRAL TX. AHEAD OF THIS LOW PRESSURE, LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS
HAVE DEVELOPED AND DEWPOINTS HAVE STEADILY CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S. WITH AIR TEMPERATURES JUST A FEW DEGREES
WARMER, AREAS OF FOG ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP WITH SLIGHT
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY NOTED OVER THE LAST HOUR. THICK HIGH
CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND MAY WORK
AGAINST A SHARP REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY INITIALLY, BUT CONTINUED
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO NORTH TEXAS SHOULD ALLOW AREAS OF DENSE
FOG TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS IS MOST
LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION
OF COOLER AIR AND THINNER CLOUD COVER WILL RESIDE. THE CURRENT
DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME.
AS AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE OVERALL TROUGH AXIS
SPREADS EAST TODAY, CLOUD COVER WILL THIN AND ANY FOG WILL ERODE
THROUGH LATE MORNING. LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME
CLEARING BY LATE IN THE DAY. AS A RESULT OF THE CLOUDS/FOG, WE'LL
SEE HIGH TEMPS REMAIN IN THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST
WHILE CLEARING WILL PROMOTE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY. AREAS OF FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. NORTH WINDS ALONG
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY WHERE HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE
50S.
DUNN
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES AMPLIFIED WITH TROUGHING TO OUR EAST AND
RIDGING TO OUR WEST. MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE BENEATH A
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEK. AFTER A COOL START TO
THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ON MONDAY, WE'LL SEE STEADILY
CLIMBING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING THE MID 70S IN SOME AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BUT LOOKS TO COME THROUGH DRY AT
THIS TIME.
DUNN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
THICK HIGH CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH VFR CIGS/VIS PREVAILING FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS. A
LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO PULL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION AND AREAS OF FOG ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WE'VE MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
TAF FORECAST WITH THIS PACKAGE AND WILL SHOW MVFR VIS BY 10Z WITH
A TEMPO FOR IFR VIS/CIGS FROM 12-15Z. LOW CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH
LATE MORNING WITH A SHARP IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AFTER MIDDAY. VFR
SHOULD PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH
WE'LL BE WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR CIGS TO SPREAD
SOUTHWARD LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND A
COLD FRONT.
DUNN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 54 41 59 43 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 52 40 68 48 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 47 34 55 40 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 52 38 57 38 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 51 37 58 41 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 53 41 61 44 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 50 37 61 43 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 50 40 65 48 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 53 40 70 47 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 58 38 61 40 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
TXZ091>095-100>107-116>120-123.
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