003
FXUS64 KFWD 061121
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
521 AM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE
SCATTERING OUT.
- NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY,
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
LATE EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONTINUED STREAM OF HIGH
CLOUD COVER EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND INTO TEXAS. THIS
IS COURTESY OF A 140 KT UPPER JET TAPPED INTO PACIFIC MOISTURE ON
THE EAST SIDE OF AN ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS DRAPED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. WHILE THE CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN THICK, THE SUB CLOUD
LAYER IS FAIRLY DRY RESULTING IN PRECIPITATION FREE CONDITIONS.
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL TO OUR WEST, MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT, HOWEVER A LACK OF
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE WILL KEEP ANY RAIN FROM DEVELOPING. AT THE
SURFACE THOUGH, A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS NOTED OVER WEST-
CENTRAL TX. AHEAD OF THIS LOW PRESSURE, LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS
HAVE DEVELOPED AND DEWPOINTS HAVE STEADILY CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S. WITH AIR TEMPERATURES JUST A FEW DEGREES
WARMER, AREAS OF FOG ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP WITH SLIGHT
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY NOTED OVER THE LAST HOUR. THICK HIGH
CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND MAY WORK
AGAINST A SHARP REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY INITIALLY, BUT CONTINUED
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO NORTH TEXAS SHOULD ALLOW AREAS OF DENSE
FOG TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS IS MOST
LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION
OF COOLER AIR AND THINNER CLOUD COVER WILL RESIDE. THE CURRENT
DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME.
AS AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE OVERALL TROUGH AXIS
SPREADS EAST TODAY, CLOUD COVER WILL THIN AND ANY FOG WILL ERODE
THROUGH LATE MORNING. LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME
CLEARING BY LATE IN THE DAY. AS A RESULT OF THE CLOUDS/FOG, WE'LL
SEE HIGH TEMPS REMAIN IN THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST
WHILE CLEARING WILL PROMOTE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY. AREAS OF FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. NORTH WINDS ALONG
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY WHERE HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE
50S.
DUNN
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES AMPLIFIED WITH TROUGHING TO OUR EAST AND
RIDGING TO OUR WEST. MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE BENEATH A
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEK. AFTER A COOL START TO
THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ON MONDAY, WE'LL SEE STEADILY
CLIMBING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING THE MID 70S IN SOME AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BUT LOOKS TO COME THROUGH DRY AT
THIS TIME.
DUNN
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 517 AM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH IFR CIGS/VIS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID
MORNING. WE'LL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC
VISIBILITY AT THE MAJOR AIRPORTS, ALTHOUGH LOW CIGS WILL BE
PROBLEMATIC THROUGH THE MORNING. THINGS SHOULD START TO IMPROVE A
BIT AROUND MIDDAY, ALTHOUGH PESKY LOW CLOUDS COULD LINGER A LITTLE
LONGER THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED IN THE TAF. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS
SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. WE'LL MAINTAIN VFR
SCT012 FOR NOW, BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED IN LATER
ISSUANCES.
DUNN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 59 43 57 33 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 68 48 62 34 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 55 40 54 29 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 57 38 56 27 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 58 41 56 29 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 61 44 58 33 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 61 43 58 31 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 65 48 63 34 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 70 47 65 34 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 61 40 61 29 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107-116>120-123.
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