832
FXUS64 KFWD 061850
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1250 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH AND EAST TX. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING WITH DRIER AIR
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND IT.
- NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY,
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
AFTER A CLOUDY AND/OR FOGGY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS,
IT LOOKS LIKE SOME OF THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES,
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE RED RIVER STAYING THE UPPER 40S OR
LOWER 50S. THE REST OF AREA WILL STAY IN THE 50S AND 60S (MAINLY
CENTRAL TX) WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.
OUR NEXT COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH AND EAST TX. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE
MORNING TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S IN NORTH TX
AND UPPER 40S OVER IN CENTRAL TX. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE POST-
FRONTAL WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY BY MID-LATE MORNING AND SHOULD
LIFT/SCATTER OUT THE MAJORITY OF THESE CLOUDS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
NEAR 20 TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE NORTH WINDS
WILL KEEP THE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S ACROSS NORTH TX AND LOW 60S
OVER IN CENTRAL TX. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT,
BUT THE FORECAST SHOWS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR MANY
LOCATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT. MAKE SURE TO BUNDLE UP VERY WELL FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE MONDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE LONG-TERM FORECAST WITH A QUIET WEEK
AHEAD. AFTER A CHILLY MONDAY, A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR
EAST AND SOUTH FLOW PREVAILS. AT THE SAME TIME, DRY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE MID-UPPER LEVELS AS A LONGWAVE
TROUGH DOMINATES THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
REACH THE 60S/70S NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION. AS EXPECTED WITH THE SYSTEMS 6-7
DAYS OUT, THE TIMING AND PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOW ALMOST 50/50 SPLIT BETWEEN THE
LONGWAVE DIGGING FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS VERSUS
KEEPING IT NORTH OF OUR AREA. IF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
TOWARD THE FIRST OPTION, WE COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD
WEATHER ARRIVING TO THE REGION BY LATE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE THE
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND/OR REDUCED VSBY ACROSS THE REGION.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE TO IMPROVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT IS SET TO ARRIVE TO THE DFW METROPLEX SITES AROUND 10-11Z
SUNDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY AROUND 13-14Z AT WACO. LATEST
GUIDANCE KEEP THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LOW CEILINGS/VSBY OVER IN
EAST TEXAS SUNDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT AND SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER
THE REGION. HOWEVER, SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY STILL IMPACT A FEW
OF THE SITES BETWEEN 10-14Z. WE INTRODUCED BKN010 AT THIS TIME,
BUT FUTURE ISSUANCE MAY HAVE TO LOWER CIGS/VSBY BASED ON THE
LATEST TRENDS. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER BY LATE MORNING AS
THE NORTH WINDS BECOME BREEZY. WE CAN'T RULE OUT SOME OCCASIONAL
GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NO OTHER IMPACTS ARE
ANTICIPATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 43 56 33 53 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 48 61 34 56 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 40 54 30 51 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 38 56 27 53 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 41 55 29 52 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 44 58 33 54 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 43 57 31 53 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 48 61 35 55 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 47 63 34 58 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 40 59 29 58 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SANCHEZ
LONG TERM....SANCHEZ
AVIATION...SANCHEZ
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