996
FXUS64 KFWD 072311
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
511 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY,
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
- THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER THIS WEEK
AND WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2025
AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY, CLOUDY, AND FOGGY MORNING, CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DRIER AIRMASS
FINALLY ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. BREEZY NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS
NEAR 20-25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WHILE RECENT
RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SOME LIGHT REFLECTIVITY RETURNS FROM THE MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH TX, MOST OF IT IS NOT
REACHING THE GROUND. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ARE BEGINNING
TO FILTER IN AS WELL, KEEPING THE LOWER LEVELS FAIRLY DRY. STILL
WE CAN'T RULE OUT A LITTLE BIT OF DRIZZLE BEFORE ALL THE CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL
KEEP TODAY'S HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS NORTH TX
AND UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S IN CENTRAL TX.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS OUR AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WITH WIND CHILL GENERALLY IN THE 20S.
MAKE SURE TO BUNDLE UP FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE MONDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOLER DAY IS IN STORE FOR US ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S BUT WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT
WINDS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST MONDAY
NIGHT WITH THE RETURN OF THE SOUTH WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
STAY IN THE 30S BUT ONLY A FEW LOCATIONS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING
BY TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2025
THE LONG-TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE WARMING TREND
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT
BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. LARGE SCALE TROUGHING
WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS MOST OF THE WEEK BUT
THE SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL KEEP THE COLDER AIRMASS OVER
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY ATTEMPT TO
PUSH SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY BRIEFLY SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE NORTH,
BUT WE WON'T SEE MUCH OF A COOLDOWN UNTIL THE STRONGER FRONT
LATER IN THE WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE 60S TO LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE 30S/40S STAYING
ABOVE FREEZING.
FOR THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD, EXTENDED GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO TREND TOWARDS A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S WITH A
STRONGER/EXPANSIVE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
THIS WILL SEND A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. WE
COULD BE LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S BY NEXT
SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 505 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2025
POST-FRONTAL STRATUS HAS VACATED THE TAF SITES TO THE SOUTHEAST
FOLLOWING THIS MORNING'S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH VFR AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES NOW PREVAILING. NORTHERLY WIND SPEEDS WILL DECLINE TO
LESS THAN 10 KTS THIS EVENING AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. A SMALL PERCENTAGE (10-20%) OF RECENT HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
IS DEPICTING SOME VERY PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT WITHIN D10
OVERNIGHT, BUT THIS LOW-PROBABILITY SCENARIO SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN
DRYING FORECAST SOUNDING PROFILES ALONG WITH 2-4 DEGREE SURFACE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS, AND THEREFORE WILL NOT BE ADDRESSED IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. LIGHT WINDS WILL RETURN TO SOUTHEASTERLY
AROUND/AFTER 00Z MONDAY EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 33 53 37 65 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 32 55 35 65 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 32 50 32 60 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 29 53 33 65 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 31 52 34 63 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 34 54 38 64 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 32 53 33 63 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 33 55 36 65 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 34 57 34 66 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 31 58 34 70 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SANCHEZ
LONG TERM....SANCHEZ
AVIATION...STALLEY
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