067
FXUS64 KFWD 081814
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1214 PM CST MON DEC 8 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW WITH A WARMUP
THROUGH THURSDAY.
- THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY AND
WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CST MON DEC 8 2025
ANOTHER COOL DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. UNLIKE THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF MORNINGS, THIS MORNING FEATURED CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.
AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY, EXPECT THE WINDS TO
GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY AS THE NORTHERN COMPONENT OF THE
ELEVATED WINDS WEAKENS AND THE SURFACE HIGH MIGRATES EASTWARD.
GOING INTO TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD, HOWEVER, A
FEW SHELTERED LOCATIONS MAY DIP TO FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS. MOST
OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN THE 34-38 RANGE. GIVEN SLIGHTLY MORE
MOISTURE IN THE AIR, PATCHY FROST IS ONCE AGAIN PROBABLE ACROSS
THE REGION.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CST MON DEC 8 2025
A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE TOMORROW AS SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES LEAD TO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
REGION. GOING INTO WEDNESDAY, A WEAK FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTHWARD
OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS, MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS IN THE MORNING
AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE DELAYED ARRIVAL OF
THE FRONT IN CENTRAL TEXAS, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
LOWER 70S.
THE MIDWEEK FRONT'S IMPACT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE QUICKLY TURNS OUR WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT,
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES WEST OF I-35 CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 70S. ELSEWHERE,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO INCREASE IN THE
FORECAST AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MAKES STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS SPLIT ON
THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT NOW FAVORS A
SHALLOW COLD FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH THE ELEVATED
FRONT STALLING SOMEWHERE IN NORTH TEXAS. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY,
THE RESIDENCE TIME OF THE COLD AIR REMAINS IN QUESTION AS WE
FINISH OUT THIS WEEK.
ADDITIONALLY, THE POSITION OF THE ELEVATED FRONT WILL DETERMINE
WHERE/HOW STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE AS A SHORTWAVE EMERGES
FROM THE WEST THIS WEEKEND. IF RAIN OCCURS, IT WOULD MOST LIKELY
BE LIGHT IN NATURE AS "WARM" AND MOIST AIR RISES ABOVE THE SHALLOW
COOL AIR. FOR NOW, THE FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MEAN OF THE
ENSEMBLES SUITES WITH RAIN CHANCES AT OR BELOW 10% ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER, ADJUSTMENTS TO BOTH TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL ARE LIKELY AS CONFIDENCE IN THE FRONT'S POSITION
IMPROVES LATER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CST MON DEC 8 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WITH
CONTINUED LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. BY THIS AFTERNOON, A GRADUAL WIND
SHIFT WILL OCCUR WITH ESTABLISHED SOUTHERLY WINDS BY 00Z. CLOUDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT, KEEPING WEATHER IMPACTS LOW. BEYOND 18Z
TUESDAY, THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
CLOSER TO 15 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 37 65 45 63 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 34 66 44 66 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 32 60 42 61 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 32 66 41 63 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 33 64 42 62 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 37 65 45 65 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 33 64 43 64 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 36 65 46 66 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 33 68 44 69 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 33 70 42 66 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HERNANDEZ
LONG TERM....HERNANDEZ
AVIATION...HERNANDEZ
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