231
FXUS65 KGGW 161045
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
345 AM MST SAT NOV 16 2024
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW THIS MORNING WITH ACCUMULATIONS OVER
MAINLY HIGHER TERRAIN AND PLENTYWOOD AREA.
- MILD TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL.
- ANOTHER TROUGH BRINGS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS IN POSITION THIS MORNING TO FILTER IN
ENOUGH COLDER CANADIAN AIR TO TURN WHAT IS CURRENTLY AN AREA OF
MOSTLY RAIN TO MOSTLY SNOW THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
HAVE RISEN SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE LAST FORECAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA, SO EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER TERRAIN FROM DAWSON UP TO EASTERN ROOSEVELT
COUNTIES. SOME OF THE INCREASE IS A MORE TARGETED AREA FROM HI-RES
MODELS COMING IN AND LINGERING MOISTURE ADVECTION THAT IS ALSO
DELAYING THE TRANSITION TO SNOW SLIGHTLY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
QUICKLY PUSH OFF OUT OF OUR AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
A QUICK MOVING RIDGE ON SUNDAY WILL WORK TO MELT ANY SNOW COVER
WITH TEMPERATURES UP TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ON MONDAY,
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES IN WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. AT
THE MOMENT THIS SYSTEM LOOKS WARMER AND LIMITED IN MOISTURE,
MEANING MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A QUIET PATTERN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
BLENDED IN THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE FOR WINDS TODAY THAT HAS
MATCHED OBSERVATIONS WELL OVERNIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH WARM
GROUND AND TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE FREEZING TODAY, SLIGHTLY
DECREASED SNOW RATIOS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON THE PATTERN THIS
WEEKEND, WHILE LOWER THAN AVERAGE FOR HOW MUCH SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE
TODAY. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON THE SYSTEM COMING IN ON MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
-ZANKER
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 1000Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR WORSENING TO IFR/LIFR, BACK TO VFR TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION: RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO MOSTLY SNOW THIS
MORNING. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY AT THE TAF SITES, SO
THE PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE A PERIOD OF MAJOR VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKIES
BEGINNING TO CLEAR.
WIND: N-NW AT 10-20 KTS, GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS TODAY. SWITCHING W-SW
AT 5-10 KTS TONIGHT.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
DANIELS-DAWSON-EASTERN ROOSEVELT-MCCONE-RICHLAND-SHERIDAN-
WESTERN ROOSEVELT.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR SOUTHWEST
PHILLIPS.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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