218
FXUS65 KGGW 170422 AAA
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
922 PM MST SAT NOV 16 2024
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- STORM EXITS LATE THIS AFTERNOON, THINGS DRY OUT AND WARM UP ON
SUNDAY.
- ANOTHER TROUGH BRINGS PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA
EARLY MONDAY MORNING INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY.
+++ EVENING UPDATE: THE LOW CLOUD DECK BEHIND THE PRECIP MAKER
FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS STRUGGLED TO CLEAR THE AREA, BUT IT IS
MAKING PROGRESS. MONTANA DOT CAMERAS SHOW PATCHY AREAS OF FOGS
SUCH AS NORTH OF ST MARIE AND NEAR THE ASH CREEK AREA. AS SUCH,
ADDED IN AREAS OF PATCHY FOG IN THE WEATHER GRIDS, BUT SIMILAR TO
THE LOW CLOUD DECK, SHOULD BE ERODING FROM DRIER AIR ENTRAINING
INTO THE AREAS WITH FRESH SNOWFALL. +++
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
SURFACE LOW IS TRACKING NORTHEAST TAKING THE PRECIPITATION WITH IT
AND SHOULD BE COMPLETELY OUT OF HERE BY TONIGHT. WILL GO AHEAD
AND LET THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES EXPIRE AT THEIR EXPIRATION
TIME.
FAST MOVING RIDGE PASSES THROUGH ON SUNDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER
AND TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH BRINGING
ANOTHER SHOT AT LIGHT RAIN AND AT TIMES SNOW. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
WEAKER THAN THE LAST ONE AND A LITTLE WARMER WITH PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS FAVORING EASTERN ZONES WITH AREAS EAST OF MT-24
POTENTIALLY SEEING A WETTING RAIN WITH AS MUCH AS A QUARTER INCH
POSSIBLE IN SHERIDAN COUNTY. AGAIN SINCE THIS IS A WARMER SYSTEM
AT THIS TIME WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA DOESN'T LOOK LIKE
IT'LL BE MET AT THIS TIME AS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE UNDER
AN INCH.
AFTER THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT, A COLDER ALBEIT MORE SEASONAL
AIR MASS SETTLES INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER SHOT AT PRECIPITATION,
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON INTENSITY AND AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON TOMORROW'S DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. MODERATE TO LOW ON TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ONWARD. LOW TO
VERY LOW ON PRECIPITATION TIMING AND AMOUNTS LATER THIS WEEK.
-BERNHART/ENRIQUEZ
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 0420Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST// AREAS OF PATCHY
FOG LEADING TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
DISCUSSION: LOW STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN BEHIND IT, BUT WILL
SLOWLY ERODE WEST TO EAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY
SUNDAY AM FOR KSDY AND KGDV. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG HAVE DEVELOPED,
BUT APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO CAUSE CONCERN FOR THE
TERMINALS AT THE MOMENT. WILL MONITOR VISIBILITY OBSERVATIONS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND UPDATE AS NECESSARY. DRY CONDITIONS AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY.
WIND: W-SW 10KTS AFTER 06Z.
-BERNHART/ENRIQUEZ
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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