188
FXUS65 KGGW 170954
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
254 AM MST SUN NOV 17 2024
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- TODAY WILL BE DRY AND MUCH WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY,
MAINLY NEAR THE ND BORDER.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A FAST MOVING RIDGE PASSES THROUGH TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND
TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. A DYNAMIC SYSTEM
TRACKING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL LEAVE
NORTHEAST MONTANA MOSTLY DRY AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN WITH AN
INCOMING TROUGH. HOWEVER, WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE STARTING AS RAIN IS
LIKELY NEAR THE ND BORDER BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR A SHARP CUTOFF ON THE WESTERN EDGE, WHICH
MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PLACE JUST WEST OF THE ND BORDER.
AFTER THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT, COLDER ALBEIT MORE SEASONAL
AIR MASS SETTLES INTO THE REGION. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL COME
ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON TODAY'S DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS. THERE IS
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY, SUCH AS A 30-40% CHANCE FOR 2" OR MORE OF SNOW
TUESDAY ALONG THE ND BORDER. CONFIDENCE DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY
IN TEMPERATURES AFTER WEDNESDAY, BUT WITHIN A STANDARD DEVIATION
FROM NORMAL.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 0900Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR
DISCUSSION: A LOW STRATUS DECK IS PUSHING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST,
SO EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF CLEAR SKIES BETWEEN DECKS
OF BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE CYCLE.
WIND: SW AT 10-20 KTS, BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE AFTER 00Z.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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