598
FXUS65 KGGW 172052
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
152 PM MST SUN NOV 17 2024
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FAR EASTERN MONTANA IS FAVORED FOR THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS.
- COLDER, ALBEIT MORE SEASONAL WEATHER SETTLES INTO THE REGION
MOST OF THE WEEK.
- POSSIBLE PATTERN CHANGE NEXT WEEKEND WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD
SNOW EVENT.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION RIGHT NOW HAS MADE FOR A
PLEASANT SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOST OF THE REGION WARMING INTO THE
40S AND 50S, THE ONE EXCEPTION AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING IS
SHERIDAN COUNTY WHICH IS STILL STUCK IN THE 30S. ENJOY IT BECAUSE
ITS GOING AWAY.
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE AREA
BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION. DURING THE DAY IT WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN BUT BY MONDAY NIGHT IT WILL CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW. THERE IS A STEEP GRADIENT IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WITH AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 24 NOT SEEING A WETTING RAIN AND AREAS
EAST OF HIGHWAY 13 SEEING A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR MORE. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW AS THE CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN OCCURS LATE IN
THE EVENT, BUT SHERIDAN COUNTY COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES. WILL
HOLD OFF ON A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NOW AND LET OTHER SHIFTS
DETERMINE IF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN THE SAME OR GO UP MORE TO
WARRANT ONE.
THIS STORM SYSTEM GETS OUT OF HERE BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND A RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE AREA. MUCH COLDER, ALBEIT SEASONAL AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND STAYS AROUND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND
THINGS STAY DRY. BY THE END OF THE WEEK MODELS ARE GIVING A
STRONGER SIGNAL OF A PATTERN CHANGE OCCURRING AND THIS WILL BE A
SNOW EVENT. STILL EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT WILL WATCH TO
SEE IF THIS HOLDS UP AND IF IT DOES BEGIN MESSAGING APPROPRIATELY
IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THE
INCOMING SYSTEM AS WELL AS FOR THE COLDER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
SYSTEM. LOW TO MEDIUM FOR NEXT WEEKENDS POTENTIAL PATTERN CHANGE.
-BERNHART
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 2000Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR, MVFR NEAR HEAVIER SHOWERS MONDAY AND AT
KSDY,KGDV BY MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION: NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN TONIGHT WITH LIGHT RAIN OR
A LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW MIX POSSIBLE ALL DAY MONDAY. LIGHT RAIN
COMPLETELY CHANGES OVER TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
AND LINGERS IN FAR EASTERN MONTANA UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING.
WIND: SW 10-15KTS THIS EVENING, LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING, W-NW 10-15KTS, GUSTS 20-25KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LLWS: POSSIBLE OVER KGGW 07-12Z.
-BERNHART
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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