029
FXUS65 KGGW 192209
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
309 PM MST TUE NOV 19 2024
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
1) BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING IN SHERIDAN COUNTY WITH SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW LEADING TO DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
VISIBILITY NEAR ZERO AND WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED AT
TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT ON WEDNESDAY.
2) ASIDE FROM SHERIDAN COUNTY, SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL LEAD TO
SLOW TRAVEL AND REDUCED VISIBILITY AT TIMES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE
MONTANA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
3) A COLDER WEATHER REGIME IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK WITH
THE NEXT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE MONTANA IN
THE PRESENCE OF NORTHWEST WINDS RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 MPH, GUSTING
TO 50 MPH THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO
EAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL
18Z WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE, THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED A TIER TO THE WEST AND IN TIME
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. MOST ENSEMBLES SHOW ACCUMULATING SNOW
WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT BUT STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THIS, REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES
IS EXPECTED AT TIMES BUT WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY
FROM WEST TO EAST. VISIBILITY AT PLENTYWOOD AIRPORT AS BEEN SOCKED
IN AT A QUARTER MILE MUCH OF THE DAY. AREA CAMERAS AND INCOMING
PHONE CALLS LEND SUPPORTIVE EVIDENCE FOR WORSENING CONDITIONS.
GIVEN SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND THE WINDS SHOULD SHOW
NO SIGNS OF LETTING UP VIA LATEST HREF, SHERIDAN COUNTY HAS NOW
BEEN PLACED IN A BLIZZARD WARNING. TRAVEL WILL BE QUITE DANGEROUS
OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THIS AREA IN PARTICULAR.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES AWAY FROM THE REGION, DO EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY FROM WEST TO EAST.
SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR TONIGHT AS ACCUMULATING SNOW WINDS
DOWN, BUT DO NOT EXPECT FULL MORE PERSISTENT RECOVERIES IN
CONDITIONS UNTIL THE WINDS DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
COLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK
BUT ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW THE NEXT CHANCE FOR LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW BY THE
WEEKEND.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS ON THE SNOW, BLOWING SNOW, AND GUSTY WINDS
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. NBM90 WAS BLENDED INTO THE WIND
GRIDS IN ORDER TO BE BETTER IN LINE WITH THE HIGHER ENVELOPE OF
GUIDANCE, REFLECTIVE OF CURRENT TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE EXISTS ON TIMING OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS. IT IS
NOT YET FULLY KNOWN HOW VISIBILITY WILL RESPOND AS ACCUMULATING
SNOW ENDS BUT THE WINDS PERSIST, ESPECIALLY WHERE ACCUMULATIONS
REACH CLOSE TO 2 INCHES.
LOWER BUT GROWING CONFIDENCE EXISTS ON TIMING, PLACEMENT, AND
AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WILL KEEP IN LINE WITH NBM FOR NOW.
AVIATION
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL RANGE FROM VFR TO IFR ACROSS AREA
TERMINALS. LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND VISIBILITY DOWN
TO 1 MILE AT TIMES WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW, ESPECIALLY FOR KSDY AND
KGDV. A GRADUAL RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST ON
WEDNESDAY.
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 45
KTS. WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TO 5 TO 15 KTS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-GARFIELD-MCCONE-
PETROLEUM.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR DANIELS-
DAWSON-EASTERN ROOSEVELT-RICHLAND-WESTERN ROOSEVELT-WIBAUX.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR SHERIDAN.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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