749
FXUS65 KGGW 162141
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
241 PM MST MON DEC 16 2024
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- ONE ROUND OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHWEST ZONES.
- WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOWFALL WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH WITH SNOW AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
GENERALLY LARGE-SCALE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE, THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW SEPARATE ROUNDS OF SNOWFALL: A
WEAKER ONE THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING IN OUR SW ZONES,
AND A STRONGER ONE NEXT ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR OUR N AND NE ZONES (WITH SOME MIXED PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH
WITH THAT ROUND).
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SUB-
ZERO TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE MODEL DATA FOR TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY IS CONFUSED, GIVING A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBLE HIGH
TEMPERATURES.
LATER IN THE WEEK AND BEYOND, AN OVERALL WARMER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO TAKE OVER, GIVING US WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND LESS THAN NORMAL PRECIPITATION WELL THROUGH THE
CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
NO NOTABLE DEVIATIONS WERE MADE TO THE BASE FORECAST. THERE
REMAINS MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION OCCURRING
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM HAS LOWER CONFIDENCE
FOR AMOUNT AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION, WITH A LARGE SPREAD OF
POTENTIAL POSITIONS OF THE LOW TRACK.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ALSO IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
BETWEEN VFR AND IFR.
MULTIPLE PERIODS OF TRANSITION BETWEEN LOW AND HIGH AND BACK DOWN
TO LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS TAF CYCLE.
OCCASIONAL SNOWFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z.
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
EAST WINDS TOMORROW AROUND 10 KTS, WITH SHIFT FROM THE NORTH BY
MID-DAY.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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