571
FXUS65 KGGW 192030
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
130 PM MST THU DEC 19 2024
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- NE ZONES SEE SUBZERO TEMPS TONIGHT AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY
- SUNDAY SYSTEM BRINGS THREAT OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
- STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THIS WEEKEND
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM TODAY WILL ALLOW A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM TO
MOVE THROUGH, PROVIDING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR AREAS MAINLY
NORTHEAST OF GLASGOW TO SIDNEY ON FRIDAY. UP TO AROUND AN ADDITIONAL
HALF INCH OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
THE REGION DRIES OUT ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE OFF THE PNW, A WEAK
TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY AM. THE LATEST
ANALYSIS OF THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE CROSS SECTION OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW A CLEAR WARM NOSE DEVELOPING YET AGAIN
ACROSS NE MT, PROVIDING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR A FREEZING
RAIN/RAIN MIX. THIS SCENARIO FAVORS A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE SUNDAY
MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF US-2 WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WILL
TAKE TIME TO BREAK OR SURFACE WILL REMAIN FROZEN THROUGH THE DAY.
AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST, MUCH OF THE STATE WILL REMAIN UNDER
A BROAD RIDGE INFLUENCE, RESULTING IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING UP ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR INTO THE CHRISTMAS
HOLIDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR NO MAJOR PRECIPITATION EVENTS,
WITH MID-LEVELS PERSISTENTLY ABOVE FREEZING LENDING TO RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN BEING THE PROJECTED TYPES FOR ANYTHING THAT DOES
FALL.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
THE LOWEST ELEMENT OF CONFIDENCE IS THE LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE
PROFILE DICTATING PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM SUNDAY ONWARD. THERE IS
CURRENTLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR A SWATH OF MEASURABLE ICE SUNDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A MOSTLY DRY AND
PERSISTENT WARMER THEN NORMAL PATTERN AFTER FRIDAY.
AVIATION
UPDATED: 2030Z
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR, LOW CHANCE FOR MVFR AFTER 12Z
DISCUSSION: SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND WINDS HAVE LIGHTENED IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM EARLIER TODAY. FOR ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT KGDV, THERE IS LOW (20%) CONFIDENCE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW FRIDAY MORNING THAT WOULD COME ALONG WITH
MVFR VISIBILITY IF IT OCCURS.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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