446
FXUS65 KGGW 210938
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
238 AM MST SAT DEC 21 2024
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- QUIET WEATHER WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY
- FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED.
- STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES STARTS TODAY AND CONTINUES
FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES. MEANWHILE, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC AND REACH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
MORNING.
WARM AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH BELOW FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN MOST AREAS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW
FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN STARTING AS EARLY AS 09Z (2 AM MST)
SUNDAY IN PHILLIPS COUNTY AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING. THE FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGE TO
LIGHT RAIN AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING ON SUNDAY BEFORE
ENDING. MOST AREAS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER HAVE A 80 TO 100
PERCENT CHANCE OF 0.01 INCH OR MORE ICE ON SUNDAY AND AREAS ALONG
US 2 HAS A 60 TO 80 PERCENT AND AREAS AS FAR SOUTH AS MT 200
BETWEEN CIRCLE AND SIDNEY HAVE A 50 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING A 0.01 INCH OR MORE OF ICE ON SUNDAY. THE PLENTYWOOD
AREA IN THE NE CORNER OF THE STATE HAS A 30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE
OF 0.10 INCH OR MORE ICE PARTIALLY BECAUSE TEMPERATURES THERE ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW FREEZING INTO MOST OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
PARTIALLY DUE TO HIGHER FORECASTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOST OF PHILLIPS AND ALL
OF VALLEY COUNTIES BETWEEN 09Z-18Z SUNDAY (2 AM TO 11 AM MST
SUNDAY) AND FOR DANIELS, SHERIDAN, ROOSEVELT, MCCONE, RICHLAND,
DAWSON AND WIBAUX COUNTIES FROM 12Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY (5 AM TO
5 PM MST SUNDAY).
THE PRECIPITATION MOVES TO THE EAST SUNDAY EVENING AND SURFACE
HIGH WILL BRING A WARM AND DRY DAY TO THE REGION ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ALL WEEK. AN UPPER RIDGE IS
EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND WHILE THE RIDGE FLATTENS SOMEWHAT
ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, MOST OF THE MOISTURE
STAYS TO THE SOUTH. A WARM SW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH ON THE FREEZING RAIN MISSOURI
RIVER ON SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON THE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
WENT WITH HIGHER POPS THAN THE BASE FORECAST ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY
NORTH WHERE CONFIDENCE IN THAT FREEZING RAIN IS HIGH. NO OTHER
DEVIATIONS FROM BASE FORECAST FOR NOW.
AVIATION
UPDATED: 0900Z
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.
DISCUSSION: THERE WILL BE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES IN
OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES TODAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z SUNDAY AT KGGW AND
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY AT THE OTHER TAF SITES.
WINDS: EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM MST SUNDAY FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
NORTHERN PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR DANIELS-
DAWSON-EASTERN ROOSEVELT-MCCONE-RICHLAND-SHERIDAN-WESTERN
ROOSEVELT-WIBAUX.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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