409
FXUS65 KGGW 070856
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
156 AM MST FRI MAR 7 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.
- A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRING WITH
THIS DISTURBANCE.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL MOVE IN TO
BRING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF 2025 THUS FAR ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. A FEW DRY SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND AID IN MIXING WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON, SO THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF
ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS.
ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE AND BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME.
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF A LARGE, UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ENTERING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO NORTHEAST MONTANA, WHICH
IS USUALLY AN INDICATION OF RETURNING PRECIPITATION
OPPORTUNITIES. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
ACCUMULATION, AS WELL AS TIMING WITH THIS DISTURBANCE THOUGH.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
THERE WERE NO DEVIATIONS TO THE FORECAST. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF WELL ABOVE TEMPERATURES OCCURRING THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRING ON
TUESDAY, AS WELL AS ON ELEVATED CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION TYPE AND ACCUMULATION ON
TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATE: 0930Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR
DISCUSSION: A RIDGE WILL BE THE STORY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHICH
WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING WEST AT 7 TO 16 KNOTS AFTER
15Z.
FIRE WEATHER
WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA, A PERIOD OF DRYING
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH DEAD GRASSES FROM
LAST YEAR ARE PARTIALLY MATTED DOWN, ANY STANDING GRASS AND BRUSH
HAVE BEEN SUBJECT TO DECENT DRYING. MULTIPLE ONCOMING, DRY DISTURBANCES
WILL MOVE IN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO BRING WINDS UP TO 20+ MPH
AND BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN TO AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR
ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS, MAINLY AROUND THE CHARLES M. RUSSELL
REFUGE. THE BURNING WINDOW FOR THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT EACH
AFTERNOON, BUT STILL LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT ATTENTION WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.
-STOINSKERS
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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