039
FXUS65 KGGW 072030
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
130 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY WITH
INCREASINGLY GUSTY WEST WINDS.
- A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOWING THIS
DISTURBANCE.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL MOVE IN TO
BRING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF 2025 THUS FAR ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. RECORD HIGHS ARE IN JEOPARDY SUNDAY SUCH AS THE 65 IN
GLASGOW. A FEW DRY SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND AID IN MIXING WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON, SO THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF
ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS.
ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE AND BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME.
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF A LARGE, UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ENTERING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO NORTHEAST MONTANA, WHICH
IS USUALLY AN INDICATION OF RETURNING PRECIPITATION
OPPORTUNITIES. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
ACCUMULATION, AS WELL AS TIMING WITH THIS DISTURBANCE THOUGH.
ALMOST ALL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS ANY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
AROUND NEXT FRIDAY TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
MINNESOTA.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
SLIGHT DEVIATIONS WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
ANOMALOUS WARMTH AND WIND SUNDAY/MONDAY NOT NECESSARILY CAPTURED
WELL BY THE DETERMINISTIC NBM. THUS, INCREASED TEMPERATURES TO
50TH PERCENTILE SATURDAY AND AT LEAST 25TH PERCENTILE SUNDAY FOR
NOW. WINDS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WERE BROUGHT TO AROUND THE 75TH
PERCENTILE BETWEEN CHINOOK WEST WINDS AND EVENTUAL COLD FRONT.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WELL ABOVE TEMPERATURES OCCURRING
THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS OCCURRING ON TUESDAY, AS WELL AS ON ELEVATED FIRE
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE AND ACCUMULATION LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATE: 2000Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR
DISCUSSION: A RIDGE WILL BE THE STORY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHICH
WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
WINDS: WEST AT 5-10 KNOTS, INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS BY 18Z.
FIRE WEATHER
WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA, A PERIOD OF DRYING
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH DEAD GRASSES FROM
LAST YEAR ARE PARTIALLY MATTED DOWN, ANY STANDING GRASS AND BRUSH
HAVE BEEN SUBJECT TO DECENT DRYING. MULTIPLE ONCOMING, DRY DISTURBANCES
WILL MOVE IN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO BRING WINDS OF 20-30+ MPH AT
TIMES AND BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS LOW AS AROUND 20
PERCENT FOR ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS, MAINLY AROUND THE CHARLES M.
RUSSELL REFUGE. THE BURNING WINDOW FOR THESE CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE SHORT EACH AFTERNOON, BUT STILL LONG ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ATTENTION WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND 60S. THE MOST CONCERNING DAY AT THIS TIME FOR LOW HUMIDITY IS
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY MONDAY FOR WINDS INCLUDING A DRY COLD FRONT
LATER IN THE DAY. CHECK BACK FOR ANY POTENTIAL HEADLINES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
-ZANKER/STOINSKERS
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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