558
FXUS65 KGGW 080916
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
216 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- THERE ARE HIGH WIND WATCHES/WARNING FOR STRONG WINDS ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY WITH
INCREASINGLY GUSTY WEST WINDS.
- A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOWING THIS
DISTURBANCE.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL MOVE IN TO
BRING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF 2025 THUS FAR ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. RECORD HIGHS ARE IN JEOPARDY SUNDAY SUCH AS THE 65 IN
GLASGOW. A FEW DRY SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND AID IN MIXING WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON, SO THERE IS MODERATE (50 PERCENT)
CONFIDENCE OF ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE INTENSE ENOUGH FOR HIGH WIND CRITERIA, SO A HIGH
WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS COUNTY ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, AND A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE GGW COUNTY
WARNING AREA ON MONDAY.
ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE AND BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME.
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF A LARGE, UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ENTERING THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY ON THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BRING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO NORTHEAST MONTANA, WHICH
IS USUALLY AN INDICATION OF RETURNING PRECIPITATION OPPORTUNITIES.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION TYPE AND ACCUMULATION,
AS WELL AS TIMING WITH THIS DISTURBANCE THOUGH.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
FOR DEVIATIONS, INCREASED WINDS ABOVE THE BASE NBM FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH COMBINATIONS OF NBM AND NBM90.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WELL ABOVE TEMPERATURES OCCURRING
THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS OCCURRING ON TUESDAY, AS WELL AS ON ELEVATED FIRE
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE AND ACCUMULATION LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATE: 0930Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR
DISCUSSION: A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN
PLACE.
WINDS: WEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS, INCREASING TO 10 TO 18 KNOTS AFTER
18Z.
LLWS: WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AFTER
03Z SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA, A PERIOD OF DRYING
WILL CONTINUE. ALTHOUGH DEAD GRASSES FROM LAST YEAR ARE PARTIALLY
MATTED DOWN, ANY STANDING GRASS AND BRUSH HAVE BEEN SUBJECT TO
DECENT DRYING. MULTIPLE ONCOMING, DRY DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE IN ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO BRING WINDS OF 20-30+ MPH AT TIMES AND BRING
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS LOW AS AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR ELEVATED
FIRE CONDITIONS, MAINLY AROUND THE CHARLES M. RUSSELL REFUGE. THE
BURNING WINDOW FOR THESE CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE SHORT EACH
AFTERNOON, BUT STILL LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT ATTENTION WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. THE MOST
CONCERNING DAY AT THIS TIME FOR LOW HUMIDITY IS SUNDAY, FOLLOWED
BY MONDAY FOR WINDS INCLUDING A DRY COLD FRONT LATER IN THE DAY.
FEEL FREE TO CHECK IN PERIODICALLY FOR ANY HEADLINE UPDATES.
-ZANKER/STOINSKERS
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
DANIELS-DAWSON-EASTERN ROOSEVELT-GARFIELD-MCCONE-NORTHERN
PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-PETROLEUM-PRAIRIE-RICHLAND-SHERIDAN-
WESTERN ROOSEVELT-WIBAUX.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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