625
FXUS65 KGGW 082156
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
256 PM MST SAT MAR 8 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- THERE ARE HIGH WIND WATCHES/WARNING FOR STRONG WINDS ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY WITH
INCREASINGLY GUSTY WEST WINDS.
- A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOWING THIS
DISTURBANCE.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL MOVE IN TO
BRING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF 2025 THUS FAR ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. RECORD HIGHS ARE IN JEOPARDY SUNDAY SUCH AS THE 65 IN
GLASGOW. A FEW DRY SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND AID IN MIXING WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE INTENSE
ENOUGH FOR HIGH WIND CRITERIA, SO A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN
CONTINUED FOR SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS COUNTY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, AND
A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE GGW COUNTY WARNING AREA ON
MONDAY.
ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE AND BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME.
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF A LARGE, UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ENTERING THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY ON THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BRING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO NORTHEAST MONTANA, WHICH
IS USUALLY AN INDICATION OF RETURNING PRECIPITATION OPPORTUNITIES.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION TYPE AND ACCUMULATION,
AS WELL AS TIMING WITH THIS DISTURBANCE THOUGH.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
FOR DEVIATIONS, INCREASED WINDS ABOVE THE BASE NBM FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH MIX OF NBM AND NBM 90TH PERCENTILE. ALSO, WENT CLOSER
TO NBM 50TH FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD AS THIS HAS
VERIFIED WELL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND THE DETERMINISTIC IS ONLY
ABOUT NBM 10TH.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WELL ABOVE TEMPERATURES OCCURRING
THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS OCCURRING ON TUESDAY. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE AND ACCUMULATION LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATE: 2130Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR
DISCUSSION: A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN
PLACE.
WINDS: WEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS, INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER
15Z.
LLWS: WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AFTER
03Z SUNDAY UNTIL AROUND 15Z.
FIRE WEATHER
WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA, A PERIOD OF DRYING
WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH POTENTIAL RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH DEAD GRASSES FROM LAST YEAR ARE PARTIALLY MATTED DOWN,
ANY STANDING GRASS AND BRUSH HAVE BEEN SUBJECT TO DECENT DRYING
AND POTENTIAL RAPID SPREAD GIVEN GUSTY WINDS. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST MONTANA
ON SUNDAY DUE TO MINIMUM HUMIDITY NEAR 20 PERCENT ALONG WITH
WINDS AROUND 20 MPH FOR A PERIOD IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE
LIMITED OVERNIGHT RECOVERY OF HUMIDITY BEFORE DROPPING BACK INTO
THE 20S AND LOWER 30S PERCENT MONDAY SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
THE MAIN DRIVER FOR MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI (INCLUDING THE CHARLES M. RUSSELL
REFUGE) ON MONDAY AFTERNOON IS COINCIDENT WITH THE HIGH WIND
WARNING IN EFFECT FOR POSSIBLE WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO
60 MPH. THE LITTLE ROCKIES AND NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER HAVE SOME
LINGERING PATCHES OF SNOW COVER, LIMITING HUMIDITY AND FUEL
CONCERNS THERE. SOUTHEAST INTO EAST CENTRAL MONTANA IS AROUND THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR ENERGY RELEASE
AND BURNING INDEX. AFTERWARD, WINDS BACK OFF SIGNIFICANTLY WITH A
COOLER/WETTER TREND THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
-ZANKER/STOINSKERS
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
DANIELS-DAWSON-EASTERN ROOSEVELT-GARFIELD-MCCONE-NORTHERN
PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-PETROLEUM-PRAIRIE-RICHLAND-SHERIDAN-
WESTERN ROOSEVELT-WIBAUX.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR DAWSON/MCCONE/PRAIRIE/RICHLAND/WIBAUX COUNTIES-SOUTHERN
PETROLEUM AND SOUTHERN GARFIELD COUNTIES-THE LOWER MISSOURI
RIVER BREAKS INCLUDING THE CHARLES M RUSSELL NATIONAL WILDLIFE
REFUGE.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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