008   
FXUS65 KGGW 090914  
AFDGGW  
  
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT  
314 AM MDT SUN MAR 9 2025  
   
DISCUSSION  
  
KEY MESSAGES:  
  
- THERE ARE HIGH WIND WATCHES/WARNING FOR STRONG WINDS TODAY AND   
  MONDAY.   
  
- A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS  
  MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE  
  CANADIAN BORDER FOLLOWING THIS DISTURBANCE.  
  
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY.  
  
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:  
A ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL BRING THE  
WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF 2025 TODAY. RECORD HIGHS ARE IN JEOPARDY  
TODAY SUCH AS THE 65 IN GLASGOW. A FEW DRY SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL  
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND AID IN MIXING WINDS DOWN TO THE  
SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO  
BE INTENSE ENOUGH FOR HIGH WIND CRITERIA, SO A HIGH WIND WARNING  
CONTINUES FOR SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS COUNTY THROUGH MONDAY, AND A   
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE GGW COUNTY WARNING AREA ON MONDAY.  
  
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL HELP BRING   
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT. IT WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW   
SHOWERS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THERE IS HIGH (80 PERCENT)   
CONFIDENCE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN BELOW 0.02 INCHES OF   
ACCUMULATION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.  
  
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A LARGE, UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING   
THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL   
BRING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO NORTHEAST MONTANA, WHICH IS USUALLY   
AN INDICATION OF RETURNING PRECIPITATION OPPORTUNITIES. THERE IS   
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING, PRECIPITATION TYPE, AND ACCUMULATION,   
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE THOUGH.   
  
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:  
FOR DEVIATIONS, A MODEL BLEND OF NBM 25TH PERCENT AND 75TH  
PERCENTILE WAS USED FOR MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MONDAY. ALSO  
CONTINUED TO INCREASE WINDS ABOVE THE BASE NBM FOR TODAY AND  
MONDAY WITH MIX OF NBM AND NBM 90TH PERCENTILE.    
  
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF ABOVE TEMPERATURES OCCURRING THROUGH   
THURSDAY. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW  
SHOWERS OCCURRING ON TUESDAY. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON   
PRECIPITATION TYPE AND ACCUMULATION LATE THIS WEEK.  
  
  
   
AVIATION  
  
LAST UPDATE: 0900Z  
  
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR  
  
DISCUSSION: A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN   
PLACE.  
  
WINDS: WEST AT 7 TO 15 KNOTS, INCREASING TO 15 TO 23 KNOTS AFTER   
15Z.  
  
LLWS: WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BEFORE  
EXITING THE AREA AFTER 15Z SUNDAY.  
  
  
   
FIRE WEATHER  
  
WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA, A PERIOD OF DRYING  
WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH POTENTIAL RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY.  
ALTHOUGH DEAD GRASSES FROM LAST YEAR ARE PARTIALLY MATTED DOWN,   
ANY STANDING GRASS AND BRUSH HAVE BEEN SUBJECT TO DECENT DRYING   
AND POTENTIAL RAPID SPREAD GIVEN GUSTY WINDS. ELEVATED FIRE   
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST MONTANA   
TODAY DUE TO MINIMUM HUMIDITY NEAR 20 PERCENT ALONG WITH WINDS   
AROUND 20 MPH FOR A PERIOD IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE LIMITED  
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY OF HUMIDITY BEFORE DROPPING BACK INTO THE 20S   
AND LOWER 30S PERCENT MONDAY SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. THE MAIN  
DRIVER FOR MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER   
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI (INCLUDING THE CHARLES M. RUSSELL   
REFUGE) ON MONDAY AFTERNOON IS COINCIDENT WITH THE HIGH WIND   
WARNING IN EFFECT FOR POSSIBLE WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO   
60 MPH. THE LITTLE ROCKIES AND NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER HAVE SOME   
LINGERING PATCHES OF SNOW COVER, LIMITING HUMIDITY AND FUEL   
CONCERNS THERE. SOUTHEAST INTO EAST CENTRAL MONTANA IS AROUND THE   
CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR ENERGY RELEASE   
AND BURNING INDEX. AFTERWARD, WINDS BACK OFF SIGNIFICANTLY WITH A   
COOLER/WETTER TREND THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.  
  
-ZANKER/STOINSKERS  
  
  
   
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
  
HIGH WIND WATCH ON MONDAY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-   
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY- DANIELS- DAWSON- EASTERN ROOSEVELT-   
GARFIELD-MCCONE-NORTHERN PHILLIPS- NORTHERN VALLEY- PETROLEUM-   
PRAIRIE-RICHLAND-SHERIDAN- WESTERN ROOSEVELT- WIBAUX.  
  
FIRE WEATHER WATCH ON MONDAY FOR   
DAWSON/MCCONE/PRAIRIE/RICHLAND/WIBAUX COUNTIES- SOUTHERN PETROLEUM  
AND SOUTHERN GARFIELD COUNTIES-THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER BREAKS   
INCLUDING THE CHARLES M RUSSELL NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE.  
  
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT MONDAY FOR SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.  
  
  
  
  
  
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW  
 
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