932
FXUS65 KGGW 092046
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
246 PM MDT SUN MAR 9 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- THERE ARE HIGH WIND WATCHES/WARNINGS FOR STRONG WINDS MONDAY AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY.
- A COOLER AND WETTER TREND IS LIKELY FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR HAS BROUGHT THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF 2025 TODAY. A FEW DRY SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND AID IN MIXING WINDS DOWN TO
THE SURFACE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
INTENSE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED HIGH WIND CRITERIA, SO THE
HIGH WIND WATCH WAS UPGRADED FOR SHERIDAN AND EASTERN ROOSEVELT
COUNTIES.
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL HELP BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT. IT WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS FOCUSED ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THERE IS HIGH (80
PERCENT) CONFIDENCE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN BELOW 0.02
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A LARGE, UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING
THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL
BRING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO NORTHEAST MONTANA, WHICH IS USUALLY
AN INDICATION OF RETURNING PRECIPITATION OPPORTUNITIES. THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING, PRECIPITATION TYPE, AND ACCUMULATION,
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE THOUGH.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
FOR DEVIATIONS, A MODEL BLEND OF NBM 25TH PERCENTILE AND 75TH
PERCENTILE WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. FOR
CONSISTENCY AND BASED ON VERIFICATION TODAY, ADJUSTED HUMIDITY
SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR THE SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR MONDAY. ALSO,
CONTINUED TO INCREASE WINDS ABOVE THE BASE NBM THROUGH MONDAY WITH
MIX OF NBM AND NBM 90TH PERCENTILE.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF ABOVE TEMPERATURES OCCURRING THROUGH
THURSDAY. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS OCCURRING BY TUESDAY. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE AND ACCUMULATION LATE THIS WEEK.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATE: 2030Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR
DISCUSSION: A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN
PLACE. A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE REGION MONDAY THAT IS LIKELY
TO COME THROUGH DRY AND WITHOUT LOW CEILINGS, ALBEIT WITH GUSTY
WINDS.
WINDS: WEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS, INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 KNOTS AFTER 15Z.
FIRE WEATHER
WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA, A PERIOD OF DRYING
WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH POTENTIAL RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY.
ALTHOUGH DEAD GRASSES FROM LAST YEAR ARE PARTIALLY MATTED DOWN,
ANY STANDING GRASS AND BRUSH HAVE BEEN SUBJECT TO DECENT DRYING
AND POTENTIAL RAPID SPREAD GIVEN GUSTY WINDS. THERE WILL BE
LIMITED OVERNIGHT RECOVERY OF HUMIDITY TONIGHT BEFORE DROPPING
BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S PERCENT MONDAY SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. THE MAIN DRIVER FOR MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ALONG/SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI (INCLUDING THE
CHARLES M. RUSSELL REFUGE) ON MONDAY AFTERNOON IS COINCIDENT WITH
THE HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FOR POSSIBLE WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. THE DECISION TO UPGRADE ZONE 122 TO A RED FLAG
FOR MONDAY WAS BASED ON SLIGHTLY INCREASED CONFIDENCE FOR CRTICIAL
CONDITIONS, PARTICUALRLY IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ZONE NEAR
THE I-94 CORRIDOR. AFTERWARD, WINDS BACK OFF SIGNIFICANTLY WITH A
COOLER/WETTER TREND THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. THE LITTLE ROCKIES AND
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER HAVE SOME LINGERING PATCHES OF SNOW
COVER, LIMITING HUMIDITY AND FUEL CONCERNS THERE. SOUTHEAST INTO
EAST CENTRAL MONTANA IS AROUND THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUM FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR FOR ENERGY RELEASE AND BURNING INDEX AND WELL ABOVE
THE 95TH PERCENTILE FOR HOT/DRY/WINDY INDEX. AFTER MONDAY, WINDS
BACK OFF SIGNIFICANTLY WITH A COOLER/WETTER TREND THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK.
-ZANKER/STOINSKERS
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
DANIELS-DAWSON-GARFIELD-MCCONE-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-
PETROLEUM-PRAIRIE-RICHLAND-WESTERN ROOSEVELT-WIBAUX.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SOUTHERN PETROLEUM AND SOUTHERN GARFIELD COUNTIES-THE LOWER
MISSOURI RIVER BREAKS INCLUDING THE CHARLES M RUSSELL NATIONAL
WILDLIFE REFUGE.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM MDT MONDAY FOR EASTERN
ROOSEVELT-SHERIDAN.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM MDT MONDAY FOR
DAWSON/MCCONE/PRAIRIE/RICHLAND/WIBAUX COUNTIES.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT MONDAY FOR SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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