343
FXUS65 KGGW 100816
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
216 AM MDT MON MAR 10 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT TODAY FOR STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. RED FLAG WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT TODAY SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER FOR LOW RH AND
STRONG WINDS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN NOON AND 3
PM TODAY WITH STRONG WEST TO NW WINDS ALONG WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE
STRONGEST WINDS TODAY WILL BE AROUND NOON JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BUT QUICKLY
WARM BACK UP ON TUESDAY WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY. THAT SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN
THE EAST.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A LARGE, UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC ON THURSDAY. THE TROUGH IS LIKELY TO SPLIT
BEFORE IT GETS TO MONTANA WHICH WILL TAKE MOST OF THE MOISTURE TO
THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST OF
THE GFS AND EC ENSEMBLES ARE FORECASTING LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN
INCH OR MORE OF SNOW SOUTH AND A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE SAME
NORTH.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF ABOVE TEMPERATURES OCCURRING THROUGH
THURSDAY. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
ACCUMULATION LATE THIS WEEK.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATE: 0815Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR
DISCUSSION: A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE REGION BETWEEN 18Z AND
21Z TODAY WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND STRONG NW WINDS. THE WINDS
WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING WHILE A MIX OF LOW
AND MID LEVEL WILL BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.
WINDS: WEST TO SW 5 TO 10 KNOTS EARLY INCREASING TO 10 TO 20
KNOTS AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING AND BECOMING WEST AND INCREASING TO
20 TO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS AFTER 15Z. WINDS WILL
TURN TO THE NW WITH THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 18 AND 21Z AND BECOME
NORTH AROUND 00Z AND RAPIDLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL TURN SE 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
WITH NO SNOW COVER ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, FUELS HAVE HAD PLENTY
OF TIME TO DRY THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH LOW RH AND WARM
TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION. THE ONLY AREA WITH SNOW COVER IS
AROUND OPHEIM WHERE SOME AREAS OF DEEP SNOW COVER LINGERS.
RH IS EXPECTED TO BE AS LOW AS 25 PERCENT SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL BRING RAPID SPREAD TO ANY
WILDFIRE THAT DEVELOP. THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER ALONG/SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI (INCLUDING THE CHARLES M.
RUSSELL REFUGE) THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COINCIDES WITH THE HIGH WIND
WARNING WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. WILL ADD FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 136 AND 137 TO THE RED FLAG WARNING THAT IS
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 122 TODAY.
WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REGION.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY-DANIELS-DAWSON-EASTERN ROOSEVELT-GARFIELD-MCCONE-NORTHERN
PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-PETROLEUM-PRAIRIE-RICHLAND-SHERIDAN-
WESTERN ROOSEVELT-WIBAUX.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR DAWSON/MCCONE/PRAIRIE/RICHLAND/WIBAUX COUNTIES-
SOUTHERN PETROLEUM AND SOUTHERN GARFIELD COUNTIES-THE LOWER
MISSOURI RIVER BREAKS INCLUDING THE CHARLES M RUSSELL NATIONAL
WILDLIFE REFUGE.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHWEST
PHILLIPS.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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