798
FXUS65 KGGW 102055
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
255 PM MDT MON MAR 10 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- A DROP TO CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN AND/OR SNOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON THAT HAS REDUCED THE WINDS, AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
THIS EVENING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY THAT WILL BRING A RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWER EARLY BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE AFTERNOON.
THE WARM AIRMASS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THURSDAY BUT MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL LURK OVER THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND MAKE AN
INTRODUCTION FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL
ALLOW MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM A DEEP WESTERN US
TROUGH. THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
LATE THURSDAY.
THE NEXT SERIOUS WAVE OF MOISTURE MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.
THE MODELS HAVE DROPPED OFF ON AMOUNTS OF QPF/SNOW WITH THE FIRST
WAVE. THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTAL LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH OVER
THE AREA WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR PLENTYWOOD. THE SECOND SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER, THUS DRIER. TFJ
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
DIDN'T STRAY TOO MUCH FROM NBM NUMBERS.
QPF FOR THE FIRST SYSTEM (STARTING LATE THURSDAY) WAS LOWERED WITH
THE LATEST NBM. WITH SNOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH
ACROSS ALL BUT THE PLENTYWOOD AREA, THERE ISN'T MUCH CONCERN FOR
ANY HIGHLIGHTS (I.E. WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS) AT THIS TIME. TFJ
AVIATION
LAST UPDATE: 2045Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION: A COLD FRONT PASSING NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
WILL ALLOW FOR NORTHERLY WINDS TO DECREASE. WINDS THEN WILL
INCREASE FROM THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT THEN SWITCH TO
THE WEST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES EAST
THROUGH THE AREA.
ON TUESDAY, MVFR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS COULD LOWER
CONDITIONS TO MVFR IN SOME LOCATIONS. TFJ
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
DAWSON/MCCONE/PRAIRIE/RICHLAND/WIBAUX COUNTIES-SOUTHERN
PETROLEUM AND SOUTHERN GARFIELD COUNTIES-THE LOWER MISSOURI
RIVER BREAKS INCLUDING THE CHARLES M RUSSELL NATIONAL WILDLIFE
REFUGE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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