906
FXUS65 KGGW 122034
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
234 PM MDT WED MAR 12 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
1) WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA REACHING THE 50S AND 60S FOR MOST
PLACES.
2) COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
UPPER RIDGING WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS
NE MONTANA FOR THURSDAY AS HIGHS PUSH INTO THE 50S AND 60S. A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO COLDER TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK
WITH INITIAL RAIN CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
SHOWS CAPE RANGING FROM 100 TO 300 J/KG ACORSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA INITIALLY, SO AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL.
ENSEMBLES SHOW UPPER RIDGING BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION WITH
DRIER AND MILDER CONDITIONS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
THE FORECAST LARGELY FOLLOWED NBM FOR THIS CYCLE WHICH CAPTURED
EXPECTED TRENDS WELL. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR WARM TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY COLDER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS MORE MODERATE HOWEVER ON PRECIPITATION
AMOUNT AND EXACT PLACEMENT AND TIMING.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A CHANGE TO
LIGHT SNOW AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. THERE MAY BE
SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BY FRIDAY.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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