276
FXUS65 KGGW 130314
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
914 PM MDT WED MAR 12 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
1) WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA REACHING THE 50S AND 60S FOR MOST PLACES.
2) COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
UPPER RIDGING WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS
NE MONTANA FOR THURSDAY AS HIGHS PUSH INTO THE 50S AND 60S. A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO COLDER TEMPERATURES LATE THIS
WEEK WITH INITIAL RAIN CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW. HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE SHOWS CAPE RANGING FROM 100 TO 300 J/KG ACORSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA INITIALLY, SO AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL.
ENSEMBLES SHOW UPPER RIDGING BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION WITH
DRIER AND MILDER CONDITIONS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
THE FORECAST LARGELY FOLLOWED NBM FOR THIS CYCLE WHICH CAPTURED
EXPECTED TRENDS WELL. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR WARM TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY COLDER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS MORE MODERATE HOWEVER ON PRECIPITATION
AMOUNT AND EXACT PLACEMENT AND TIMING.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 0315Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR
LLWS: LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ROUGHLY 06-11Z
OVER THE YELLOWSTONE VALLEY(KGDV & KSDY) IN THE EARLY MORNING.
DISCUSSION: MAINLY JUST HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
CYCLE.
BEYOND THE CYCLE: RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME MVFR CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITIES FRIDAY MORNING.
WIND: LIGHT AND S TO E TONIGHT. SWINGING TO TH SW AND INCREASING
TO 5 TO 15 KTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
GAH
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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