101
FXUS65 KGGW 130924
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
324 AM MDT THU MAR 13 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
1) FRONTAL SYSTEM TONIGHT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS, COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY.
2) ICY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING, AND CALVING
OPERATIONS MAY BE IMPACTED BY THE COLD, WET CONDITIONS.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL BREAK DOWN TODAY AS A DEEP
PACIFIC TROUGH PUSHES ONSHORE. INITIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE MONTANA FRONT RANGE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS THE UPPER
TROUGH BEGINS TO SPLIT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THE SOUTHERN
PORTION DEVELOPS INTO A STRONG STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND TAKES UP MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY OF THE
SYSTEM. IN THE NORTH, THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL BRING A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. COLD
FRONT PASSAGE LATE WILL BRING FALLING TEMPERATURES AND CHANGE THE
RAIN TO SNOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
ALSO COME SOME STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS FOR FRIDAY.
ENSEMBLES SHOW UPPER RIDGING BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION WITH
DRIER AND MILDER CONDITIONS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
WHILE RAIN IS MAINLY FORECASTED WITH THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT, THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY (60-90%) FOR MORE THAN
AN INCH OF SNOW NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
PROBABILITY FOR FREEZING RAIN IS NEAR ZERO, BUT WITH WET SURFACES
AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DROPPING NEAR OR BELOW 32, ICY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
AVIATION
VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW LATE AS
A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME MVFR
CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES FRIDAY MORNING.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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