626
FXUS65 KGGW 012046
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
246 PM MDT THU MAY 1 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
1) ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS.
2) WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WHICH
MAY RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
3) A CHANGE TO WETTER AND COOLER WEATHER REMAINS EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE BUT HAS BEEN PARTICULARLY NOTABLE WITH
SHOWERS. LOOK FOR WINDS TO PERSIST A FEW MORE HOURS WITH THE LAKE
WIND ADVISORY FOR FORT PECK LAKE IN FINE SHAPE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD WITH DRY WEATHER AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. SUNDAY MAY FEATURE PARTICULARLY DRY AND
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT - WHICH MAY
PROMPT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IF RH DROPS ENOUGH AND WINDS ARE
SUFFICIENT GIVEN THE LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL.
AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND UPPER TROUGHING BEGINS TO INFLUENCE
THE REGION, COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
WARM WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PRECIPITATION
AMOUNT GIVEN SPOTTY NATURE OF CONVECTION. NBM HANDLED THINGS WELL
BUT DID INCLUDE A NUDGE FROM NBM90 TO INCREASE WINDS TODAY, AS
WELL AS LOWERED RH TO ACCOUNT FOR DEEPER MIXING. ALSO LEANED INTO
THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH PRE-
FRONTAL WARNING EXPECTED - POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN
ZONES.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 2045Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.
DISCUSSION: MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDER REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z FOR KOLF,
KSDY, AND KGDV, IF NOT A LITTLE LATER IN EASTERN TERMINALS.
WIND: NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS, GUSTING TO 35 KTS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, GUSTING AND SHIFTING WINDS NEAR SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE GRADUALLY TONIGHT.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-GARFIELD-MCCONE-
PETROLEUM.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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