172
FXUS65 KGGW 030831
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
231 AM MDT SAT MAY 3 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, WHICH
RAISES FIRE WEATHER CONCERN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- A CHANGE TO WETTER AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED STARTING
SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE WARMING OCCURS
AGAIN BY MID WEEK.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND BRING
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH IT. THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST ON
SUNDAY. THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNTIL A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RH WILL BE VERY LOW MAINLY IN THE TEENS TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WHERE A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE THE
FIRST 90 DEGREE HIGH OF THE YEAR. RH WILL BE IN THE TEENS AGAIN
ON SUNDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EXCEPT ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE ND BORDER AREAS MAY NEED A
FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE ON SUNDAY IF THE WIND FORECAST INCREASES OR
RH FORECAST DECREASES.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS SUNDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH MONTANA WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY IS LIKELY FOR FORT PECK LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND SOUTH ON TUESDAY.
THERE IS HIGH (70 PERCENT) CONFIDENCE OF CENTRAL MONTANA
RECEIVING MORE RAINFALL THAN NORTHEAST MONTANA, BUT THERE IS LOW
(30 PERCENT) CONFIDENCE ON AMOUNTS. THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS
FOR LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE AREA.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON THE WARMTH FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING ON THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME RAIN OCCURRING SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON AMOUNTS.
GENERALLY WENT WITH THE NBM FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER,
INCREASED TEMPERATURE CLOSER TO THE NBM 50 FOR SUNDAY'S HIGHS AND
WENT SOMEWHAT HIGHER ON WINDS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 0835Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.
DISCUSSION: MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED.
WIND: MAINLY SOUTH TO SE AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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