042
FXUS65 KGGW 032049
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
249 PM MDT SAT MAY 3 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW, WHICH
IS BRINGING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TO PARTS OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
- A CHANGE TO WETTER AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE WARMING OCCURS AGAIN BY MID WEEK.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND BRING
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH IT. THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RH WILL BE VERY LOW MAINLY IN THE
TEENS TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WHERE
A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE THE FIRST 90 DEGREE HIGH OF THE YEAR.
WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WINDS AROUND THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE ON
SUNDAY ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER, A RED FLAG WARNING WAS
ISSUED FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. THEREFORE, A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR
THIS TIME FRAME. THERE IS HIGH (100 PERCENT) CONFIDENCE OF MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
MONTANA. THERE IS MODERATE (50 PERCENT) CONFIDENCE OF THE EASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA RECEIVING LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
HIGH (60 PERCENT) CONFIDENCE OF THE LITTLE ROCKIES RECEIVING MORE
THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN THIS SAME TIME FRAME.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON THE WARMTH FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY. THERE IS
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.
GENERALLY WENT WITH THE NBM FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER,
INCREASED TEMPERATURE CLOSER TO THE NBM 50 FOR SUNDAY'S HIGHS AND
WENT SOMEWHAT HIGHER ON WINDS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
DECREASED RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE DROUGHT AND CONSISTENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPPING BELOW THE BASE NBM FORECAST.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 2100Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.
DISCUSSION: MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED.
WIND: MAINLY SOUTH TO SE AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 6 PM SUNDAY, WHICH COULD BRING GUSTY, SPORADIC
WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SINCE THE STRONGEST WINDS AND LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS
ALONG THE MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA BORDER. A FEW SHOWERS AND
COOLER WEATHER WILL FILTER IN ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
-STOINSKERS
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
GARFIELD-MCCONE-PETROLEUM.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR
DAWSON/MCCONE/PRAIRIE/RICHLAND/WIBAUX COUNTIES-FORT PECK
RESERVATION AND DANIELS/ROOSEVELT/SHERIDAN COUNTIES.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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