553
FXUS65 KGGW 040843
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
243 AM MDT SUN MAY 4 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT,
WHICH IS BRINGING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TO PARTS OF THE AREA.
- A CHANGE TO WETTER AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE WARMING OCCURS AGAIN BY MID WEEK.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY. DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR WHERE A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD SEE THE FIRST 90 DEGREE HIGH OF THE YEAR. WITH LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH ALONG THE NORTH
DAKOTA BORDER, A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE
LOCATIONS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS
TIME FRAME. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT IN MOST AREAS AND IN THE SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE NBM PROBABILITY OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION FROM
THIS SYSTEM RANGES FROM 50% ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER TO 90%
IN THE WEST OVER PHILLIPS AND PETROLEUM COUNTIES. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S IN MOST
AREAS AND 60S ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON THE WARMTH FOR TODAY. THERE IS MODERATE TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON TONIGHT AND MONDAY AND LOW
CONFIDENCE ON THE RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
GENERALLY WENT WITH THE NBM FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER,
INCREASED TEMPERATURE CLOSER TO THE NBM 50 FOR TODAY'S HIGHS AND
WENT SOMEWHAT HIGHER ON WINDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. DECREASED
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN MOST AREAS DUE TO THE
DROUGHT AND CONSISTENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING BELOW THE BASE
NBM FORECAST.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 0830Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF MVFR LATE
TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION: MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH A FEW
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SKIES WILL BECOME CLOUDY WITH MID LEVEL THIS
EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT. CEILING WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR
CEILINGS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND REACHING KGGW
AROUND 11Z AND SPREADING EAST MONDAY MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
WIND: MAINLY SOUTH TO SE AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND SOUTH
AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER WINDS AT KGDV AND
KSDY. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH 10 TO 20 KNOTS AROUND 01Z TONIGHT
AT KGGW WITH A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED AT KOLF AROUND
03Z AND KGDV AND KSDY AROUND 09Z.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
GARFIELD-MCCONE-PETROLEUM.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
DAWSON/MCCONE/PRAIRIE/RICHLAND/WIBAUX COUNTIES-FORT PECK
RESERVATION AND DANIELS/ROOSEVELT/SHERIDAN COUNTIES.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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