815
FXUS65 KGGW 042103
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
303 PM MDT SUN MAY 4 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
1) WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RAISE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
2) GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT THAT
WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY, LEADING TO ROUGH WAVES ON FORT PECK LAKE.
3) ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THE
FRONT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
UPPER RIDGING LEADING TO HOT, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING. AS
WINDS SWITCH TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE TONIGHT AND MONDAY, THE
LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN FINE SHAPE FOR FORT PECK LAKE FROM
9PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 9PM MONDAY. SOME SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH APPRECIABLE QPF CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
ZONES WHERE IT MAY BE A BIT STEADIER, PERHAPS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER LOOK TO SET UP FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH A WARMUP
BACK INTO THE 80S FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON,
BREEZY AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND MONDAY, AND LOW ON
PLACEMENT AND AMOUNT OF RAINFALL FROM THE SHOWERS.
NBM HANDLED THE FORECAST REASONABLY WELL THROUGHOUT, WITH MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS FOR NEAR TERM WINDS.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 2045Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF MVFR LATE
TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION: UPPER RIDGING TO BEGIN WITH WILL LEAD TO VFR
CONDITIONS, BUT A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
WHICH WILL LEAD TO LOWER CEILINGS, ISOLATED SHOWERS, AND POTENTIAL
MVFR PERIODS.
WIND: SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5 TO 15 KTS, GUSTING TO 25 KTS
WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AFTER 06Z AND INCREASE,
RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 KTS, GUSTING TO 30 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
UPPER RIDGING REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES, HIGHS IN THE 80S, SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH, AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY BETWEEN 10 AND 15
PERCENT EXPECTED. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8PM
THIS EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 120 AND 122.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
GARFIELD-MCCONE-PETROLEUM.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
DAWSON/MCCONE/PRAIRIE/RICHLAND/WIBAUX COUNTIES-FORT PECK
RESERVATION AND DANIELS/ROOSEVELT/SHERIDAN COUNTIES.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page