800
FXUS65 KGGW 050823
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
223 AM MDT MON MAY 5 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
1) GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES LEADING TO ROUGH WAVES ON FORT PECK LAKE.
2) ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN ALL AREAS
AND TONIGHT AND TUESDAY IN THE SOUTH.
3) WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH
WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING.
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER CENTRAL MONTANA TODAY WHICH WILL BRING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION WHICH WILL BE HEAVIEST
AND MOST FREQUENT IN THE WEST. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SPLIT THIS
TROUGH TONIGHT TAKING THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY TO THE SOUTH AS IT
MOVES EAST SO THAT CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY SHIFTS TO
THE SOUTHERN ZONES OF THE FORECAST AREA.
NBM, HREF DESI AND WPC ALL HAVE DIFFERENT PROBABILITIES OF PRECIP
AMOUNTS BUT THEY GENERALLY AGREE ON MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING WEST OF GLASGOW AND JORDAN TODAY AND SHIFTING SOUTH
TONIGHT.
UPPER RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY BRINGS DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO THE
AREA. SE WINDS MAY GET HIGH ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON FOR A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY FOR FORT PECK LAKE.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH A WAVE ON WSW FLOW ALOFT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS TODAY AND HIGH WEST
AND LOW EAST ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TODAY, TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
NBM HANDLED THE FORECAST REASONABLY WELL THROUGHOUT, WITH MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS OF THE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR NEAR TERM.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 0830Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR TODAY AND VFR MOST OF THE
TIME WITH AREAS OF MVFR TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION: LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH
SHOWERS AT TIMES. MID LEVEL CEILING EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LOWER
TO MVFR LEVELS BY 15Z TO 18Z. CEILINGS WILL RISE TO LOW VFR LEVELS
THIS EVENING AND REMAIN THAT WAY IN MOST AREAS TONIGHT. KGDV WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE MVFR CEILINGS MORE OFTEN THAN VFR TONIGHT AS THE
RAIN SHOWERS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WIND: NORTH 15 TO 30 KNOTS TODAY WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NORTH WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-GARFIELD-MCCONE-
PETROLEUM.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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