150
FXUS65 KGGW 070916
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
316 AM MDT WED MAY 7 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR FORT PECK LAKE.
- WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT, MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
NEAR 90 POSSIBLE.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
REX BLOCK PATTERN CONTINUES WITH UPPER LOW MOVING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST STATES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR
MONTANA, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE DOMINATE. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE RIDGE ON THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THIS
WAVE, A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA TODAY,
RESULTING IN INCREASING SOUTH WINDS OVER EASTERN MONTANA. WINDS
EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR
TODAY.
THE LEE TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY. WITH THE
INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SOUTH FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS,
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST
MONTANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES, SENDING TEMPERATURES SOARING TOWARD 90 DEGREES
FOR SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW BEGINS PUSHING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING INTO THE STATE,
THIS MOVES THE RIDGE AXIS EAST, FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
INTO CENTRAL MONTANA ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS. THE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL, AND SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH
ONSHORE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
GENERALLY WENT WITH NBM ON ALL ELEMENTS. EXCEPTIONS WERE TO ADD
NBM90 WINDS TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. ALSO BLENDED IN
DETERMINISTIC MODELS FOR THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20KT FROM 16Z TO 06Z.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY-GARFIELD-MCCONE-PETROLEUM.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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