650
FXUS65 KGGW 072258
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
458 PM MDT WED MAY 7 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR FORT PECK LAKE.
- WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS & ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
ABOVE 90 POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
REX BLOCK PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO EVOLVE INTO MORE OF DISJOINTED
FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS SOON AS TOMORROW - THURSDAY - A
COOLER BROAD TROUGH FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SLIDES INTO OUR
REGION AND BUTTS UP AGAINST A WARM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS FLOW PATTERN AND AIR MASS INTERACTION
WILL BE ENOUGH TO SET OFF SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, STARTING EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR THESE GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESIDE SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THE VERY WARM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS UP FROM THE GREAT BASIN, ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS SET UP WILL EASILY RESULT IN
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY WITH MANY
LOCATIONS REACHING ABOVE 90 DEGREES. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY
INCREASE IF FORECAST WINDS BECOME STRONGER AND/OR FORECAST
HUMIDITY DROPS MORE.
BEGINNING LATER ON SATURDAY, THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GIVES WAY TO
AN ENCROACHING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM THE WEST, WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR OFF-AND-ON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY NEXT WEEK, WITH OVERALL AVERAGE CONFIDENCE BECOME GREATER
WITH TIME.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY, USED A BEST CONSENSUS BLEND TO HIGHLIGHT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND THEIR POSSIBLE DOWNDRAFT WINDS.
OTHERWISE, USED THE GIVEN NBM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR HOT TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THURSDAY EVENING AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 2245Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.
LLWS: LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA INCLUDING AT KOLF, KSDY, AND KGDV FROM
05-13Z.
DISCUSSION: EARLY SEASON, HIGH PRESSURE WARM AIR MASS WILL
DOMINATE THIS TAF CYCLE THROUGH THUERSDAY MORNING. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR KGDV THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE WILL BE HANDLED BY PROB30S.
WIND: S AT 15 TO 25 KTS GUSTING UP TO 35 KTS THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. REDUCING TO 5 TO 15 KTS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT. LATE THURSDAY MORNING, LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, BECOMING W AT 10 TO 15 KTS.
GAH
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-GARFIELD-MCCONE-
PETROLEUM.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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