226
FXUS65 KGGW 292053
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
253 PM MDT THU MAY 29 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
- SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.
- POSSIBLE ON AND OFF AGAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE STARTING SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING FOR SEVERAL DAYS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A 500MB RIDGE OVERHEAD THIS EVENING WILL BE INVADED BY A FULLY
VERTICAL TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST COME FRIDAY MORNING. THE
BIGGEST IMPACT FOR THE AREA WILL BE AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST
WINDS. WE COULD SEE GUSTS TO 40 MPH ON FORT PECK LAKE SO A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FROM 9 AM TILL 7 PM.
OTHERWISE, AN ELEVATED SMOKE LAYER WAS MAKING FOR A MILKY SKY
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE HRRR SMOKE MODEL WAS SHOWING MUCH OF
THIS TO DEPART TO OUR EAST TONIGHT SO THERE SHOULDN'T BE A BIG
IMPACT WITH DEVELOPINGS INVERSIONS FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT COULD BRING IN MORE SMOKE FROM
FIRES NORTHWEST OF EDMONTON, ALBERTA (AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE
FIRESMOKE.CA SMOKE MODEL).
THEREAFTER, THE UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDS AND BRINGS WARM TO HOT
CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
90S (SUNDAY). THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY THAT'S
FOLLOWED BY INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY THAT COULD GIVE
THE AREA A WETTING RAIN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
MODELS BACKED OFF ON THE QPF FOR THIS PERIOD. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
COULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO A SLIGHTLY FURTHER TRIM AS WE GET CLOSER
TO THE EVENT.
AFTERWARD, TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO REBOUND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
THE RAINSHOWERS SLOWLY PULL OUT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE WARMING TREND THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. A
NEIGHBORING OFFICE WANTED TO TRIM THE QPF FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING A BIT, AND FOLLOWED ALONG AS DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR
COULD MAKE THIS VERY LIKELY. OTHERWISE, PRETTY MUCH WENT WITH THE
NBM THROUGH THE ENTIRE 7 DAY PERIOD. TFJ
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 2055Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.
DISCUSSION: ELEVATED SMOKE LAYER HAS MOVED DOWN FROM FIRES IN
CENTRAL-NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD MOVE TO
OUR EAST LATER TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FRIDAY MORNING
WITH INCREASING NW WINDS. EXPECT GUSTS TO EXCEED 30 KTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
WIND: SE DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT THEN INCREASING FROM
THE NW FRIDAY WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY TO 40 KTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TFJ
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-GARFIELD-MCCONE-
PETROLEUM.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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