754
FXUS65 KGGW 311945
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
145 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
BRINGING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
- SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN LATE SUNDAY, BUT
THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY SHOULD BE BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
- MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN CENTRAL CANADA MOVED A LITTLE FURTHER EAST
THAN EXPECTED. VISIBILITIES DROPPED TO ABOUT 8 MILES FROM
PLENTYWOOD TO SIDNEY WHILE MUCH LOWER VISIBILITIES WERE REPORTED
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA (AS LOW AS 1 1/2 TO 3 MILES). COOLER
CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL CANADA LOOKS TO HAVE DIMINISHED THE FIRES
A BIT TODAY BUT MINOR AREAS MAY DRIFT IN OCCASIONALLY FROM
NORTHERN ALBERTA FIRES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE NEXT WEATHER-MAKER IS A COLD FRONT. THAT FRONT WAS DROPPING
THROUGH THE EDMONTON AREA IN ALBERTA AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
WESTERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING AND THE EASTERN ZONES EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. DAYTIME FRONTS LATELY HAVE COME IN A BIT STRONGER THAN
WHAT MODELS SUGGESTED, SO ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY
FROM 8 AM TILL 10 PM.
THEREAFTER, INSTABILITY OVER SW AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA LOOKS TO
GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF
THESE LOOK TO BE STRONG BUT THOSE SHOULD NOT REACH OUR CWA.
INSTEAD WE SHOULD RECEIVE MORE SHOWERS THAT SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL ZONES SUNDAY EVENING. RAINSHOWERS DIMINISH BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE SOUTHWEST ZONES EXPECTING TO PICK UP THE MOST,
WITH OVER A HALF INCH.
CLOUDS AND LINGERING SHOWERS WILL COOL THINGS OFF QUITE A BIT
MONDAY WITH HIGHS UP TO 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK, BUT WEAKEN
INTO MORE ZONAL FLOW. THIS PATTERN FAVORS SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
WITH OCCASIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT NW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY WILL BE STRONGER THAN NBM. THIS LOOKS VERY
SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY, SO BLENDED IN HIGHER MODEL
NUMBERS TO GOING FORECAST GRIDS.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE TO NBM NUMBERS.
TFJ
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 1945Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR
DISCUSSION: A COLD FRONT OVER ALBERTA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
MARCHING SE AND ARRIVE AT KGGW ABOUT 12-15Z. LOOK FOR WINDS TO
SWITCH AND INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE NW WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH AND SOME MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN GRADUALLY INTO
SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY WITH
RAINSHOWERS AND/OR LOW CEILINGS MAINLY IN THE KGDV AREA. TFJ
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 10 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-GARFIELD-MCCONE-
PETROLEUM.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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